海外市场月报：组合策略应对高不确定性

Market Overview - The U.S. PCE data for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7%, indicating a moderate inflation trend[2] - Nvidia's Q2 revenue grew by 122% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, but its Q3 guidance suggested a slowdown to double-digit growth, leading to a post-earnings drop of over 8%[2] - The Chicago PMI for August was reported at 46.1, above the expected 45.5, while the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was at 103.3, significantly higher than the expected 100.7[2] Economic Outlook - The market is entering a phase of heightened uncertainty in September, with key events such as non-farm payroll data and the FOMC meeting approaching[3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is estimated at 70% according to the CME model, reflecting expectations of a smooth transition towards easing monetary policy[3][7] - Historical trends suggest that candidate debates in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election can significantly influence polling data, warranting close monitoring[3] Investment Strategy - In light of increasing uncertainty, the technology sector, represented by the Nasdaq index, is expected to face challenges in breaking previous highs, suggesting a range-bound market[3] - Small-cap U.S. stocks, benefiting from potential rate cuts, along with value sectors such as consumer and cyclical stocks, are recommended for better portfolio performance[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, which could lead to tighter monetary policies in the U.S. and Europe, impacting equity market valuations[24] - A downturn in global economic conditions could negatively affect market sentiment and performance[24] - Escalation of geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Palestine or Russia-Ukraine conflicts, may trigger increased market volatility[24]