MENGNIU DAIRY(02319) 西南证券·2024-09-02 05:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) with a target price of HKD 16.25 [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 447 billion for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, and an operating profit of RMB 31.2 billion, down 4.8% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to inventory digestion and controlled shipment pace to maintain reasonable inventory levels at the terminal [2]. - The gross margin improved to 40.3%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw milk prices [2]. - The company plans to repurchase up to HKD 2 billion of its shares and increase the dividend payout ratio, emphasizing shareholder interests [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 447 billion, down 12.6% year-on-year, with operating profit at RMB 31.2 billion, a decrease of 4.8% [2]. - The revenue breakdown by product categories shows liquid milk at RMB 362 billion (-12.9%), ice cream at RMB 33.7 billion (-21.8%), milk powder at RMB 16.4 billion (-13.7%), and cheese at RMB 21.1 billion (-6.3%) [2]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 40.3%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, and an operating profit margin of 7%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is RMB 45.0 billion, RMB 50.2 billion, and RMB 55.8 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.14, RMB 1.28, and RMB 1.42 [3][4]. - The dynamic PE ratios for the same period are projected at 11x, 9x, and 9x [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing shareholder returns through share buybacks and increasing dividend payouts [2]. - The FIRST strategy will continue to drive high-quality development in operations and management [2]. - The company is addressing the supply-demand imbalance in raw milk through various support measures to stabilize dairy farming operations [2].