AKESO(09926) 浦银国际证券·2024-09-02 06:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 康方生物 (9926.HK) with a target price of 63 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current price of 49.1 HKD [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's 1H24 performance is largely in line with market expectations, achieving revenue of 1.02 billion RMB, with product revenue of 939 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24% [2][3]. - The report highlights the upcoming WCLC conference, where interim analysis data for the K drug head-to-head study in lung cancer is expected to be announced, serving as a key catalyst for the company's stock [2][3]. - The company has initiated seven new Phase III clinical trials in the first half of 2024, focusing on its core assets, 卡度尼利 and 依沃西, with a projected total R&D expenditure of 1.3 to 1.4 billion RMB for the year [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 1H24, 康方生物 reported a gross margin of 91.3%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 239 million RMB, compared to a net profit of 253 million RMB in 1H23 [2][3]. - The company’s cash and cash equivalents stood at 5.69 billion RMB as of the end of the first half of 2024 [2][3]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024E at 2.39 billion RMB, 2025E at 3.45 billion RMB, and 2026E at 5.41 billion RMB, with significant year-on-year growth anticipated [3][4]. Clinical Development and Upcoming Catalysts - The report outlines several key data readouts expected in the second half of 2024, including interim analysis data for 依沃西 in the AK112-303 trial and data for 卡度尼利 in the 1L CC trial [2][3]. - The company is also preparing for potential inclusion in the 2024 medical insurance negotiations, which could significantly boost the sales volume of its drugs [2][3]. Valuation and Financial Estimates - The report adjusts the net loss estimates for 2024E to 540 million RMB, with slight adjustments to future profit estimates for 2025E and 2026E [2][3]. - The valuation is based on a DCF model with a WACC of 9.4% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [2][3].