金融界4月14日消息，上证指数高开高走，中证港股通创新药指数 (港股通创新药，931250)上涨4.76%， 报707.89点，成交额124.39亿元。 从中证港股通创新药指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 从中证港股通创新药指数持仓样本的行业来看，生物药品占比49.06%、化学药占比29.71%、制药与生 物科技服务占比19.95%、医疗商业与服务占比1.28%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。当港股通范围发 生变动导致样本不再满足互联互通资格时，指数将相应调整。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 数据统计显示，中证港股通创新药指数近一个月下跌1.15%，近三个月上涨24.35%，年至今上涨 16.18%。 据了解，中证港股通创新药指数从港股通范围内选取50只业务涉及 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to important data catalyst nodes approaching and accelerated progress in the "new pipeline" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant revenue growth driven by the inclusion of its products in the medical insurance directory and the expansion of indications for its drugs [7] - The company has a strong innovation pipeline and increasing commercial clarity in overseas clinical trials, supporting the maintained "Buy" rating [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 34.19 billion, 55.98 billion, and 85.77 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 60.98%, 63.71%, and 53.23% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 24 million, 587 million, and 1.343 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding growth rates of 104.71%, 2323.13%, and 128.90% [6][8] - The company's reasonable equity value is calculated at 100.3 billion HKD based on a DCF method with a perpetual growth rate of 3% and WACC of 8.67% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][11]. Core Insights - The company's core product sales are strong, with commercial sales revenue reaching RMB 2.00 billion, a 24.9% increase, while total revenue for 2024 was RMB 2.13 billion, reflecting a 53.1% decline primarily due to reduced licensing revenue [3][16]. - The company has effectively managed costs, resulting in a significant reduction in expense ratios across the board, with R&D expenses decreasing by 5.3% due to the transition of some outsourced clinical research services to in-house execution [4][18]. - The clinical pipeline is advancing steadily, with key programs such as Cadonilimab and Ivonescimab making progress in various trials, including those for hepatocellular carcinoma and non-small cell lung cancer [5][19][20]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of RMB 501 million for 2024, but the operating net loss narrowed by 16.7% year-over-year to RMB 660 million [3][16]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at RMB 3.41 billion, RMB 5.45 billion, and RMB 7.31 billion, respectively, with expected year-over-year growth rates of 60% and 34% in the following years [11][34]. - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, achieving a net profit of RMB 50 million [11][34]. Clinical Pipeline - Cadonilimab is involved in multiple clinical trials, including adjuvant treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma and combination therapies for non-small cell lung cancer [5][19]. - Ivonescimab is also progressing in various trials, including those for biliary tract cancer and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma [20][23]. - The company is expanding into antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) with several candidates entering clinical or IND application stages [10][30][31]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 96.6 per share, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 10.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [11][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.13 billion in 2024, a decrease of 53.1%, primarily due to a reduction in licensing revenue, while commercial sales revenue increased by 24.9% to RMB 2.00 billion [3][16]. - The company has effectively managed costs, with a significant decline in expense ratios, leading to a narrowed operating net loss of RMB 660 million, down 16.7% year-over-year [4][18]. - The clinical pipeline is advancing steadily, with key programs such as Cadonilimab and Ivonescimab making progress in various clinical trials [5][19]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 3.41 billion, RMB 5.45 billion, and RMB 7.31 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of 60% and 34% in subsequent years [11][34]. - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, achieving a net profit of RMB 50 million [11][34]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain high, with estimates of 92.3% in 2025 and 92.9% in 2027 [15]. Clinical Pipeline Progress - Cadonilimab is involved in multiple clinical trials, including adjuvant treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma and combination therapies for non-small cell lung cancer [5][19]. - Ivonescimab is also progressing in various trials, including first-line treatments for biliary tract cancer and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma [20][23]. - The company has several NDA/sNDA approvals expected in 2025, which could significantly impact revenue and market position [9][25]. Cost Management - The company has demonstrated excellent cost management, with R&D expenses decreasing by 5.3% due to the transition of certain clinical research services to in-house execution [4][18]. - Selling expenses grew at a lower rate than commercial sales revenue, resulting in a decline in the selling expense ratio by 5.5 percentage points [4][18]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 96.6 per share based on a DCF model, reflecting a WACC of 10.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [11][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 119 per share, implying a market capitalization of HKD 106.9 billion [6]. Core Insights - The company has made significant progress with its drug Ivonescimab (依沃西), which is expected to receive approval for first-line lung cancer treatment by H1 2025. The drug has also been included in the 2024 National Medical Insurance Directory [2][17]. - Multiple Phase III clinical trials for Ivonescimab are advancing efficiently, with promising data indicating it may become the preferred first-line treatment for advanced PD-L1 positive NSCLC [3][19]. - The company is also developing other indications for Ivonescimab, including colorectal cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, and triple-negative breast cancer, with expected peak sales exceeding HKD 55 billion domestically and USD 60 billion globally for lung cancer [23][41]. Summary by Sections Ivonescimab Developments - Ivonescimab has received NMPA approval for treating EGFR-TKI resistant non-squamous NSCLC and is included in the national insurance directory for 2024 [3][17]. - The drug's application for first-line treatment of PD-L1 positive NSCLC has received priority review and is expected to be approved by H1 2025, with mPFS data showing significant improvement over existing treatments [3][19]. - Ongoing Phase III trials for various cancers are showing promising results, with the potential for Ivonescimab to become a leading treatment option in multiple indications [19][22]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of HKD 33.37 billion, HKD 50.18 billion, and HKD 78.85 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a projected net profit of HKD 6.12 billion in 2026 and HKD 24.73 billion in 2027 [6][8]. - The report highlights a significant growth trajectory, with a projected increase in earnings per share (EPS) from -0.57 in 2024 to 2.76 in 2027 [8]. Market Potential - The report estimates that the domestic sales peak for Ivonescimab in lung cancer could exceed HKD 55 billion, while global sales could surpass USD 60 billion, driven by its first-line treatment potential [23][41]. - The company is also exploring the treatment of colorectal cancer, with expectations of peak sales exceeding HKD 30 billion, supported by strong clinical trial results [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth in product sales, achieving a total revenue of 2.124 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 53.08%. However, commercial sales revenue increased by 24.88% to 2.002 billion RMB, and gross profit reached 1.835 billion RMB, reflecting a 16.53% increase in commercial sales gross profit [1][4]. - The company is building a core competitive advantage in tumor immunotherapy through its two main bispecific antibodies, Cardunilumab and Ivorisumab, which are undergoing extensive clinical exploration across over 40 indications. Notably, Ivorisumab has shown significant efficacy in treating advanced non-small cell lung cancer [2][4]. - The company is investing efficiently in research and development, with approximately 1.2 billion RMB allocated in 2024. This has resulted in the approval of three new drugs and the advancement of multiple clinical trials, including the first bispecific ADC drug entering clinical trials [3][4]. - The commercialization process is expected to accelerate, with key products entering the national medical insurance directory by the end of 2024, enhancing hospital access and coverage [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.82 billion RMB, 6.52 billion RMB, and 8.86 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 107 million RMB, 1.064 billion RMB, and 2.083 billion RMB [4][5]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 79.9% in 2025, 70.6% in 2026, and 35.9% in 2027, while net profit is anticipated to grow by 120.8% in 2025 and 896.9% in 2026 [5][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.124 billion RMB in 2024, a decrease of 53.08% year-on-year, while commercial sales revenue grew by 24.88% to 2.002 billion RMB [1][4]. - The company is building a core competitive advantage in tumor immunotherapy through its two main bispecific antibodies, Cardunilumab and Ivorisumab, with over 40 clinical therapy explorations [2][4]. - The company invested approximately 1.2 billion RMB in R&D in 2024, achieving significant milestones including three new drug approvals and multiple ongoing clinical studies [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross profit of 1.835 billion RMB in 2024, with a gross margin of 86.39% [5][8]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.820 billion RMB, 6.519 billion RMB, and 8.860 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits expected to be 107 million RMB, 1.064 billion RMB, and 2.083 billion RMB [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.57 RMB in 2024 to 2.32 RMB by 2027 [5][8]. Product Development and Commercialization - The company is advancing its commercialization process, with key products expected to be included in the national medical insurance directory by the end of 2024 [3][4]. - The company has initiated multiple clinical studies for its bispecific antibodies, establishing a strong pipeline for future growth [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Akeso, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [15]. Core Insights - Akeso's FY24 results showed strong cost controls despite a revenue shortfall, with total revenue of RMB2.1 billion, including RMB2.0 billion from product sales, representing a 25% YoY increase [8]. - The company is expected to see product sales surge by 60% YoY to RMB3.3 billion in FY25, driven by the inclusion of AK104 and AK112 in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) [8]. - AK112 is positioned as a next-generation immuno-oncology (IO) therapy, with pivotal clinical data demonstrating a meaningful progression-free survival (PFS) benefit in a Phase 3 trial against Keytruda for first-line PD-L1-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [8]. - The report highlights ongoing clinical trials for AK112 in various cancer types, including triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and pancreatic cancer, indicating a broad first-line strategy [8]. - The target price for Akeso has been raised from HK$58.97 to HK$102.61, reflecting increased sales projections for AK112 [8]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, Akeso reported revenue of RMB4,526 million, with a YoY growth of 440.3%, followed by a projected revenue of RMB2,124 million for FY24A, reflecting a decline of 53.1% [2]. - The net profit for FY23A was RMB2,028.3 million, with a projected net loss of RMB501 million for FY24A [2]. - R&D expenses are projected to be RMB1,306 million for FY25E, increasing to RMB1,937 million by FY27E [2]. - The company held a cash balance of RMB7.3 billion at the end of FY24, sufficient to support ongoing R&D and future commercial expansion [8]. Share Performance - Akeso's current market capitalization is HK$77,191.5 million, with a current price of HK$86.00 and a target price indicating a 19.3% upside [3]. - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month absolute return of 17.9% and a 3-month return of 41.7% [5]. Valuation - The DCF valuation estimates the equity value at RMB 85,652 million, translating to a DCF per share of RMB 95.43 or HK$ 102.61 [9]. - The report includes a sensitivity analysis indicating how changes in the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and terminal growth rate affect the target price [10].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index (HSHKBIO) has seen a strong increase of 3.70% as of April 1, 2025, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Kangfang Biotech (09926) up 8.14%, and others like Hong Kong Medicine (00013) and Rongchang Biotech (09995) also showing significant increases [1] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF (513280) rose by 4.18%, reaching a latest price of 0.9 HKD, with a trading volume of 37.5587 million HKD and a turnover rate of 13.91%, indicating active market participation [1] - The latest scale of the Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF reached 262 million HKD, marking a new high for the year, with the number of shares also hitting a recent high of 305 million [1] Group 2 - Kangfang Biotech reported a sales revenue exceeding 2 billion HKD for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25%, driven by strong performance in new drug sales [2] - Domestic innovative drugs are entering a harvest period, with 39 new drugs approved in China in 2024, accounting for nearly 40% of global approvals, and 24% of first-in-class drugs in development being from Chinese companies [2] - The overall performance of leading innovative pharmaceutical companies is improving, with many approaching profitability due to mature R&D and sales systems [2] Group 3 - The 2024 Government Work Report indicates an optimization of drug procurement policies, shifting from a price-only focus to a balance of quality and cost, which is expected to benefit leading pharmaceutical companies [3] - The upcoming 11th batch of drug procurement in 2025 is anticipated to enhance quality assessment and regulatory measures, potentially leading to a consolidation of market share among compliant leading pharmacies [3] - The number of retail pharmacies closing has increased to 13,700 by Q4 2024, suggesting a gradual improvement in the competitive landscape for leading pharmacies [3] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF (513280) is noted for having the lowest fee rate in the Hong Kong innovative drug market, with a management fee of only 0.15% per year, significantly lower than similar products [4] - As of December 2024, the ETF's index composition includes 66.4% innovative drugs, 15.4% CXO, and over 9% in pharmaceutical distribution and medical devices, indicating a balanced investment strategy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently in a critical year for its dual antibody drugs, with significant sales potential expected in the future, but it is not appropriate to provide specific revenue guidance at this time [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 2.124 billion yuan, a decrease of 53.08% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 1.835 billion yuan, down 58.23%, and a net loss of 501 million yuan [1]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a significant drop in commercialization revenue, which was 122 million yuan compared to 2.923 billion yuan in 2023 [1]. Product Development and Market Potential - The company’s two key products, Cadonilimab and Ivorisumab, are expected to generate substantial sales and profit returns over the next decade, with plans to cover 2,000 hospitals this year [2]. - 2025 marks the first year these products will be included in the national medical insurance directory, with specific indications for reimbursement [2]. - The company has achieved an 80% hospital access rate for its core products, indicating strong market acceptance [2][3]. Clinical Research and International Expansion - Ivorisumab has shown promising results in clinical trials, outperforming Merck's Keytruda, which is the best-selling cancer drug globally [4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that Ivorisumab could reshape the immune checkpoint cancer drug market, with peak sales estimates reaching 53 billion dollars by 2041 [5]. - The company is actively pursuing international development for Ivorisumab, with ongoing clinical trials and collaborations with major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer [6]. Clinical Efficiency and Future Outlook - The company has seen a consistent increase in clinical research activities since 2018, currently having six products on the market, two awaiting approval, and two in Phase III trials [7]. - The management expresses confidence in the future performance of its products, emphasizing the importance of entering the medical insurance directory for market expansion [3].