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计算机行业:整体基本面羸弱、国产算力和工业软件与企业应用少数领域逆势强劲
GF SECURITIES·2024-09-02 06:10

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the industry is cautious, with a focus on specific segments such as domestic computing power and industrial software [6][7]. Core Insights - The performance of the semi-annual reports confirms a cautious outlook for the industry since May, indicating weak revenue growth in cyclical sectors like ToG and enterprise custom development services [6][7]. - Hardware infrastructure demand is strong, with a notable growth rate of 24% in the computer hardware sector, while software and technical services have seen a decline of 3.14% [7][8]. - The recent index increase is attributed more to liquidity changes and secondary market factors, with sustainability being uncertain [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer hardware sector's revenue growth reached 24%, while the software and technical services sector experienced a decline of 3.14% [7]. - Hardware sector net profit grew by 41.5%, contrasting with a significant average decline of 190% in the software and technical services sector [7]. - The overall gross margin remains stable, but traditional software and service companies face significant profit pressure due to rigid costs amid weak demand [7][8]. Key Recommendations - Focus on companies like Cambrian (寒武纪) representing the domestic computing power sector, and Zhongwang Software (中望软件) in the industrial software space, along with companies like Kingdee International (金蝶国际) and Top Software (顶点软件) [6][9]. - Cambrian's financial performance aligns with expectations, with a strong recovery in the supply chain anticipated around Q3 2024 [8]. - Zhongwang Software shows significant growth in its 3D CAD products, with a revenue increase of 30.2% [9]. Notable Companies - Cambrian (寒武纪): A leading independent AI computing platform company, benefiting from the rapid growth in demand for AI chips and acceleration cards [12]. - Kingdee International (金蝶国际): Continues to see growth in cloud transformation, with a 24.2% increase in ARR [9]. - Unisoc (紫光股份): Strong positioning in the server and network equipment sectors, with a market share of 34.8% in Ethernet switches [9]. - Top Software (顶点软件): Despite a 21% decline in net profit, the company is advancing in key projects and has a solid dividend plan [9].