保险行业专题报告：以邻为镜：日本寿险行业的过去与现在

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - Japan's life insurance industry has over 140 years of development history and is one of the most mature life insurance markets globally [1] - The industry has experienced five major stages of development, with the 1990s interest rate spread crisis being a significant historical event [1] - The market structure is stable, with leading insurers holding a dominant position [1] - New policy premiums have shown weak growth, with product structures and sales channels becoming more diversified [1] - The investment strategy is conservative, with a significant increase in overseas asset allocation to cope with low interest rates [1] - Profitability is based on mortality gains, with interest rate spreads turning positive in recent years and gradually contributing to profits [1] Historical Development - Japan's life insurance industry ranks fourth globally in terms of scale, with insurance penetration and density both ranking high internationally [7] - The industry has gone through five stages: initial establishment and development (1881-1945), post-war reconstruction and rapid growth (1946-1989), interest rate spread crisis (1990-2001), post-crisis adjustment and reform (2002-2012), and stable development with positive interest rate spreads (2013-present) [11][13][19][24][25] Market Structure - The number of life insurance companies has stabilized, with 42 companies in 2022, including 22 domestic insurers, 16 foreign insurers, and 4 non-life insurance subsidiaries [52] - The market is highly concentrated, with the top 9 companies ("Big 9") accounting for 55.2% of total assets in 2022 [57] Liability Side - New policy premiums have shown weak growth, with the number of new policies declining at a CAGR of -1.0% from 2014 to 2022 [60] - Product structures have shifted towards third-sector products (health, medical, and nursing care insurance), which accounted for 38% of the market in 2020 [64] Investment Side - The investment strategy is conservative, with a significant increase in overseas asset allocation to cope with low interest rates [1] - Overseas securities accounted for 29% of total investments in 2022, with most being overseas bonds [45] Profitability - Profitability is based on mortality gains, with interest rate spreads turning positive in recent years and gradually contributing to profits [1] - The average liability cost has decreased to 1.5%-2.0%, and investment returns have stabilized at 2.0%-2.5%, leading to positive interest rate spreads [49] Capital Market Performance - Japanese insurance stocks have generally outperformed the broader market, with the TOPIX Insurance Index rising 1144% from 1983 to 2023, significantly outperforming the broader market (395%) [1]