Guoxin Securities·2024-09-02 06:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][4][11] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 8.911 billion yuan, down 28.26% year-on-year, and net profit at 2.228 billion yuan, down 37.43% year-on-year [1] - The investment banking business is under pressure due to a sluggish equity financing market, with a notable drop in IPO underwriting and refinancing projects [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its wealth management business, with a stable scale of wealth management products exceeding 340 billion yuan [1] - The leverage ratio has decreased to 4.97x, marking the first time it has fallen below 5.0x in recent years, indicating limited capacity for balance sheet expansion [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.911 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.26%, and a net profit of 2.228 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.43% [1] - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 5.037 billion yuan, down 18.92% year-on-year but up 30.02% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit at 1.748 billion yuan, down 0.33% year-on-year and up 6.07% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The breakdown of revenue growth by segment shows significant declines across brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and other areas [1] Future Earnings Forecast - The company's projected net profit for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 5.302 billion yuan, 5.936 billion yuan, and 6.416 billion yuan, reflecting a downward adjustment of 22.9%, 22.7%, and 22.6% respectively [1][11] - The forecast for operating revenue for 2024 is set at 19.912 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 13.4% [2][12]