蒙牛乳业：经营利润率持续提升，回购注重股东利益

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) with a target price of HKD 16.25 [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 447 billion for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, and an operating profit of RMB 31.2 billion, down 4.8% year-on-year. The decline in revenue is attributed to inventory digestion and controlled shipment pace [2]. - The gross margin improved to 40.3%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw milk prices. The operating profit margin also increased to 7%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to repurchase up to HKD 2 billion of its shares and increase its dividend payout, emphasizing shareholder returns [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 447 billion, a decline of 12.6% year-on-year. The breakdown by product categories shows liquid milk at RMB 362 billion (-12.9%), ice cream at RMB 33.7 billion (-21.8%), milk powder at RMB 16.4 billion (-13.7%), and cheese at RMB 21.1 billion (-6.3%) [2]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 40.3%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, and an operating profit margin of 7%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is RMB 45.0 billion, RMB 50.2 billion, and RMB 55.8 billion, respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be RMB 1.14, RMB 1.28, and RMB 1.42, with dynamic PE ratios of 11x, 9x, and 9x [3][4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and expanding its market presence, particularly in the liquid milk and ice cream segments. It aims to leverage online and offline channels and explore new consumption scenarios [8]. - The company is also committed to its FIRST strategy, which aims to drive high-quality development in operations and management [2].