Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The supply-demand relationship for thermal coal remains favorable, with high daily consumption and continued destocking at ports and power plants. Recent price adjustments have reduced risks, and the industry is expected to maintain a tight balance in the coming years. Coal companies exhibit high asset quality, abundant cash flow, and characteristics of high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers, high dividends, and high safety margins [2][3] - Focus on investment opportunities in low-priced coal stocks, including high-quality performance targets like Jinko Coal and Electric Power Energy, stable targets like China Coal Energy and Shenhua Energy, integrated coal and electricity targets like Xinji Energy, and low-priced metallurgical coal targets like Huaibei Mining and Pingmei Shenma [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Daily consumption remains high, with a slight decrease in inventory at ports and power plants. As of August 29, daily consumption for coastal power plants was 2.412 million tons, down 1.4 million tons week-on-week, while inland power plants consumed 3.784 million tons, down 1.7 million tons week-on-week [7][12] - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port increased slightly to 839 RMB/ton, up 6 RMB/ton week-on-week [8][12] - The production capacity utilization rate in the Sanxi region was 86.67%, with a weekly production of 11.7 million tons, down 10,000 tons week-on-week [12][21] 2. Coking Coal - The coking coal market shows signs of recovery, with some previously halted mines resuming production. As of August 29, the average crossing volume at Ganqimaodu port was 956 trucks, down 189 trucks week-on-week [28][33] - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang port increased to 1,770 RMB/ton, up 90 RMB/ton week-on-week [29][30] - The price of hard coking coal at Fengjing Mine was 212.5 USD/ton, down 2.4 USD/ton week-on-week, equivalent to approximately 1,840 RMB/ton [28][29] 3. Coke - The coke market faces challenges with declining prices and increased production costs, leading to reduced production enthusiasm among coking enterprises. However, the demand from steel mills is showing signs of improvement as steel prices rise [3][28] 4. Hydropower Situation - The outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir increased to 10,700 cubic meters per second, despite a decrease in water level to 152.4 meters [25][27]
煤炭开采行业周报：动力煤延续去库；焦煤价格探底回升；低位煤炭股值得把握
Guohai Securities·2024-09-02 06:42