ACCELINK(002281) 长江证券·2024-09-02 06:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Accelink Technology (002281 SZ) [9][11] Core Views - Accelink Technology is a veteran in the optical communication industry with over 20 years of experience, having built a vertically integrated platform covering optical chips, devices, and modules through multiple acquisitions and capacity expansions [5] - The company has maintained steady growth from 2014 to 2022, with a slight revenue decline in 2023 due to industry fluctuations [5] - The transmission business has shown stable growth, while the access business exhibits cyclical characteristics, and the data communication business continues to increase its revenue share [5] - The domestic market remains the primary focus, with overseas markets contributing stable and higher profitability [5] - The company has completed five equity incentive plans, with the latest in 2023 aimed at expanding high-end module capacity [5] Data Communication Market - AI has created new opportunities in the data communication market, with domestic cloud providers accelerating investments [6] - AI model training is bandwidth-sensitive, leading to increased demand for GPUs and server network cards, with optical modules expected to be a key beneficiary of the AI wave [6] - Domestic cloud providers' capital expenditures (Capex) are at a cyclical low, with significant room for growth, as evidenced by a 216% YoY increase in Q1 2024 for BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) [6] Transmission Market - The company offers end-to-end solutions for optical transport networks, with subsystems being the largest revenue contributor [7] - The 400G OTN upgrade in China, initiated by China Mobile in 2023, is expected to benefit the company's transmission business significantly [7] - The DCI (Data Center Interconnect) market has significant potential, with Lumen Technologies securing $5 billion in orders due to AI-driven demand [7] Optical Module and Chip Capabilities - Accelink Technology holds leading positions in multiple market segments, with a strong presence in the domestic market [8] - The company is one of the few domestic players with strategic R&D capabilities in optical chips, with high self-sufficiency in low-speed optical chips and breakthroughs in high-end products like 100G PAM4 EML chips [8] - The company has a silicon photonics R&D line backed by the National Innovation Center (NOEIC), giving it a significant advantage [8] Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 758 million, 1.026 billion, and 1.317 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 22%, 35%, and 28% [9] - The corresponding P/E ratios are 31x, 23x, and 18x, supporting the "Buy" rating [9] - The company's vertical integration, strong position in the transmission market, and self-sufficiency in optical chips position it as a potential flagship in the AI era [9]