Group 1: Market Outlook - The domestic and international policy environment is gradually improving, which is expected to boost market performance amidst fluctuations [1][7][22] - In September, the focus will be on the implementation of policies from the Politburo meeting and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [7][8] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is anticipated to be confirmed in September, with a likely reduction of 25 basis points [7][8] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Domestic production remains stable, but internal demand continues to show weakness, with GDP growth around 4.5% for July and August [1][13] - Retail sales are expected to grow by 3% year-on-year in August, while fixed asset investment is projected to increase by 3.7% [1][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be around 0.5% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by approximately 1% [1][18] Group 3: Industry Allocation - Structural opportunities are emerging, with a focus on growth sectors such as electronics, AI, and new productivity [1][22] - The second main line of focus includes sectors that have undergone sufficient adjustment and are supported by policy, such as home appliances, automobiles, real estate, and agriculture [1][22] - The third main line emphasizes cyclical industries with high mid-term certainty, including non-ferrous metals, utilities, and coal [1][22][23]
策略研究深度报告:吹尽狂沙始到金
Huaan Securities·2024-09-02 07:04