LZLJ(SZ:000568) Guolian Securities·2024-09-02 08:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The report anticipates a weak recovery in consumption, projecting the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 348.99 billion, 390.48 billion, and 427.88 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 15.43%, 11.89%, and 9.58% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 149.48 billion, 167.28 billion, and 183.62 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 12.85%, 11.91%, and 9.77% respectively, resulting in a three-year CAGR of 11.50% [3][11]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 169.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.84%, and a net profit of 80.28 billion yuan, up 13.22% year-on-year [11]. - For Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 77.16 billion yuan, a 10.51% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 34.54 billion yuan, which is a 2.24% increase year-on-year [11]. - The company's gross margin for Q2 2024 was 88.81%, with a net profit margin of 44.76%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.62 percentage points [11]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's liquor revenue in H1 2024 was 168.39 billion yuan, growing 16.04% year-on-year, with sales volume and price per ton increasing by 10.37% and 5.14% respectively [11]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 152.13 billion yuan, a 17.12% increase year-on-year, while other liquor categories generated 16.25 billion yuan, up 6.86% year-on-year [11]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its product structure and expanding its market presence through strategies like "digging wells" in base markets and implementing a "one city, one policy" approach to promote balanced national development [11]. Valuation Metrics - The projected PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 12, 11, and 10 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][11].