AmoyDx(300685) 国联证券·2024-09-02 08:42Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, marking its first coverage [5] Core Views - The company is a leader in the tumor companion diagnostics field in China, with a comprehensive product line and extensive hospital channels [2][5] - The company has consistently launched significant new diagnostic products and has shown strong performance in overseas market expansion, which is expected to contribute to future revenue growth [2][5] - The tumor companion diagnostics market in China is expected to grow from RMB 5.7 billion in 2022 to RMB 11.8 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 20% [7] - The company is expected to benefit from stricter LDT (Laboratory Developed Test) regulations, which are driving the return of testing samples to hospitals [7] - The company has 27 product registrations and has made significant breakthroughs in overseas markets, with overseas revenue reaching RMB 196 million in 2023, accounting for 19% of total revenue [7] Market and Industry Analysis - The global molecular diagnostics market is expected to grow from USD 8.7 billion in 2018 to USD 43.4 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 13.13% from 2023 to 2030 [39] - The Chinese molecular diagnostics market is expected to grow from RMB 6.6 billion in 2018 to RMB 970 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 20.2% from 2026 to 2030 [39] - The tumor molecular diagnostics market in China is expected to grow from RMB 7.5 billion in 2022 to RMB 44.7 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 37% from 2026 to 2030 [43] - The top five companies in the Chinese tumor molecular diagnostics market hold a combined market share of 30%, with the company holding an 8% market share [53] Product and Innovation - The company has a comprehensive product line covering PCR, NGS, IHC, and FISH technologies, with 27 Class III medical device registrations [17][19] - The company has launched several significant new products, including the MSI (Microsatellite Instability) product for pan-cancer detection in 2023 and the PCR-11 gene panel, which is expected to be approved soon [7] - The company's PD-L1 companion diagnostic was the first domestically approved product in China and has been recommended by authoritative guidelines [110] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1.23 billion in 2024 to RMB 1.87 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 23% [7] - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 310 million in 2024 to RMB 489 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 25% [7] - The company's gross margin has remained stable at around 84%, with a net margin of 25% in 2023 [33] Overseas Expansion - The company's overseas revenue reached RMB 196 million in 2023, accounting for 19% of total revenue, with a 35% year-on-year growth [7] - The company has established subsidiaries in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Canada, and has partnered with over 100 local distributors [113] - The company's PCR-11 product has been included in Japan's national health insurance reimbursement, contributing to overseas revenue growth [115]