资料来源: Wind、公司年报，国信证券经济研究所整理 ◼ 国内持续提升院内占有率，海外加快业务布局。按经营管理口径看，2023年国内销售7.85亿（+23.65%），其中院内检测试剂收入同 比增长超40%，院内占有率进一步提升；国际销售及药企商务营收2.58亿（+24.68%），公司国际业务及BD团队近70人，拥有100余 家国际经销商并在新加坡、香港、加拿大设有全资子公司，在荷兰设有欧洲物流中心。 目录 04 盈利预测、投资建议和风险提示 ◼ 随着肿瘤药物的开发进入靶向治疗和免疫治疗的"精准时代"，伴随诊断的作 用将进一步凸显。 Without Personalized Medicine: Some Benefit, Some Do Not 男性发病前10位(万例) 昌德 24.7 磨胱癌 7.3 肿瘤杂志,2024,46(7):710-721.,国信证券经济研究所整理 图: 2018-2022年GLOBOCAN全球排名前列的癌症新发病数据 资料来源：GLOBOCAN 2022、张希,杨雷,刘硕, 等. 2022年全球恶性肿瘤统计报告解读[J]. 中华 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ 从 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年10月31日 艾德生物（300685.SZ） 优于大市 单三季度营收同比增长 23%，伴随诊断龙头成长韧性持续兑现 单三季度业绩表现亮眼，龙头成长韧性持续兑现。2024 年前三季度实现营收 8.48 亿（+19.84%），归母净利润 2.27 亿（+30.82%），扣非归母净利 2.12 亿（+37.74%），扣除股权激励后的归母/扣非净利润同比增速分别为 44.62%/53.30%。单三季度收入 3.05 亿（+22.53%），归母净利 0.83 亿 （+77.58%），扣非归母净利 0.80 亿（+79.42%）。在宏观环境和行业政策 承压背景下，公司业务仍保持快速增长，利润端在同期行业整顿所导致的低 基数下实现高增长，彰显公司经营韧性。 毛净利率进一步提升，三项费用率均有所下降。24Q1-3 毛利率 84.7% （+1.1pp），进一步体现规模效应。销售费用率 29.7%（-1.8pp），研发费 用率19.4%（-1.9pp），管理费用率6.9%（-0.6pp），财务费用率-1.3%（+1.9pp）， 主要与利息收入及汇兑损益变动有关。前三季度净利率提升至 26.8% （+2 ...

2024 年 10 月 29 日 公司研究 24Q3 业绩增长显著，伴随诊断产品多适应症获日本批准 ——艾德生物（300685.SZ）2024 年三季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季报，24Q3 实现营业收入 3.05 亿元，同比增长 22.53%；实现归母净利润 0.83 亿元，同比增长 77.58%；实现扣非归母净利润 0.80 亿元，同比增长 79.42%。 点评： 营收与利润双增，成本控制与效益提升驱动利润增长：2024 年第三季度公司实 现营业收入 3.05 亿元，同比增长 22.53%；实现归母净利润 0.83 亿元，同比增 长 77.58%；实现扣非归母净利润 0.80 亿元，同比增长 79.42%。2024 年公司 前三季度股权激励费用摊销 0.24 亿元，剔除股权激励费用摊销影响后，归母净 利润同比增长 44.62%，扣非归母净利润同比增长 53.30%。归母净利润的大幅 提升主要因为收入增长以及有效执行控成本、抓质量、提效益的管理理念。 研发投入稳步提升，多项产品获批上市：公司 2024 年前三季度研发费用达 1.64 亿元，同比增长 9.03%。24Q3 公司多项产品获 N ...

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——2024 年三季报点评 | --- | |---------------------------------| | | | [table_Authors] 丁丹 ( 分析师 ) | | 0755-23976735 | | dingdan@gtjas.com | | S0880514030001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | 赵峻峰 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | | 0755-23976629 | | | | | | | zhaojunfeng@gtjas.com | | | | | | | S0880519080017 | | | | | | 本报告导读： Q3 稳健增长，业绩符合预期。海外市场及 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of RMB 848 million in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 227 million, up 31% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue reached RMB 305 million, a 23% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company surging 78% to RMB 83.41 million [1] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 84.0%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 8.5 percentage points to 27.4% [1] - The company has 27 self-developed tumor gene detection products approved in China, with several being the only approved products in the domestic market [1] - R&D expenses in the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 164 million, a 9.03% increase year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 1.244 billion in 2024E to RMB 1.836 billion in 2026E, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.89% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from RMB 321 million in 2024E to RMB 486 million in 2026E, with a growth rate of 22.33% [4] - The company's ROE is expected to rise from 16.45% in 2024E to 18.35% in 2026E [4] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 29.52 in 2024E to 19.50 in 2026E, indicating potential undervaluation [4] Product and Market Position - The company's products have gained recognition in international markets, with ROS1 and PCR-11 gene detection products approved in Japan and included in local medical insurance [1] - The company has established dual R&D centers in Xiamen and Shanghai, focusing on PCR, NGS, IHC, and FISH technology platforms [1] - The company's products have consistently demonstrated high accuracy and usage rates in both domestic and international quality evaluations [1] Analyst Consensus - The company has received 18 "Buy" ratings and 14 "Overweight" ratings in the past six months, indicating strong market confidence [6] - The average market rating score is 1.67, which falls within the "Overweight" range [6]

Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2024 reached 304.95 million yuan, a 22.53% increase year-over-year[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 was 83.41 million yuan, up 77.58% year-over-year[3] - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 were 0.21 yuan, a 75% increase year-over-year[3] - Weighted average return on equity for Q3 2024 was 4.92%, up 2.08 percentage points year-over-year[3] - Total operating revenue increased to 847,967,831.38 yuan, up 19.8% compared to the previous year's 707,591,539.73 yuan[15] - Net profit attributable to the parent company's owners increased to 1,174,863,865.61 yuan, up 16.6% from 1,007,161,728.46 yuan[14] - Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders increased to RMB 227.27 million, up 30.8% YoY from RMB 173.73 million[16] - Revenue from sales of goods and services reached RMB 810.77 million, up 14.1% YoY from RMB 710.55 million[18] - Basic earnings per share increased to RMB 0.57, up 29.5% YoY from RMB 0.44[16] - Total comprehensive income increased to RMB 227.33 million, up 31.1% YoY from RMB 173.43 million[16] Cash Flow and Investments - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 240.28 million yuan, an 11.63% increase year-over-year[3] - Investment cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 improved by 84.88% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced cash outflows for financial investments[6] - The company's net cash flow from financing activities in the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 108.79% year-over-year, mainly due to increased share repurchases[6] - Operating cash flow increased to RMB 240.28 million, up 11.6% YoY from RMB 215.25 million[18] - Investment cash outflow decreased to RMB 440.12 million, down 33.0% YoY from RMB 657.38 million[18] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period increased to RMB 252.96 million, up 29.5% YoY from RMB 195.34 million[19] - Cash paid for employee compensation increased to RMB 237.96 million, up 11.6% YoY from RMB 213.15 million[18] - Cash paid for taxes increased to RMB 68.51 million, up 67.7% YoY from RMB 40.84 million[18] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of Q3 2024 stood at 2.04 billion yuan, a 5.21% increase from the end of the previous year[3] - Total assets reached 2,035,595,020.59 yuan, a 5.2% increase from 1,934,881,553.02 yuan[13] - Monetary funds grew to 736,841,008.77 yuan, up 33.3% from 552,789,166.67 yuan[12] - Accounts receivable increased to 573,843,961.58 yuan, up 9.8% from 522,446,717.63 yuan[12] - Inventory rose to 37,320,993.03 yuan, a 29.7% increase from 28,782,648.84 yuan[12] - Total current assets reached 1,743,106,265.64 yuan, up 7.6% from 1,620,471,886.98 yuan[12] - Total liabilities decreased to 227,134,222.05 yuan, down 1.9% from 231,560,646.94 yuan[13] Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 18,844[8] - Forward Investment (Hong Kong) Limited holds 22.01% of the shares, totaling 87,701,616 shares[8] - Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited holds 8.01% of the shares, totaling 31,911,806 shares[8] - Xiamen Yixiang Investment Partnership holds 5.03% of the shares, totaling 20,026,900 shares[8] - Xiamen Keying Investment Partnership holds 4.98% of the shares, totaling 19,866,146 shares[8] - Lin Zuohua holds 1.69% of the shares, totaling 6,741,471 shares, including 4,670,703 shares through a margin trading account[9] - The total number of restricted shares at the end of the period is 4,897,930, with 62,000 shares released and 900 shares added during the period[10] - The company's restricted shares include 4,327,500 shares held by 386 core management and technical (business) personnel under the 2023 restricted stock incentive plan[10] - Share repurchases in the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 164.74% year-over-year, totaling 136.78 million yuan[6] Operating Costs and Expenses - Operating costs rose to 596,597,050.32 yuan, a 14.1% increase from 522,953,544.65 yuan in the previous year[15] - R&D expenses grew to 164,361,893.33 yuan, up 9.0% from 150,754,888.33 yuan in the previous year[15] Government Subsidies and Other Income - Government subsidies for the first three quarters of 2024 totaled 11.40 million yuan, a 43.38% decrease year-over-year[6] - Fair value change income increased to RMB 6.41 million, up 24.3% YoY from RMB 5.16 million[16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, marking its first coverage [5] Core Views - The company is a leader in the tumor companion diagnostics field in China, with a comprehensive product line and extensive hospital channels [2][5] - The company has consistently launched significant new diagnostic products and has shown strong performance in overseas market expansion, which is expected to contribute to future revenue growth [2][5] - The tumor companion diagnostics market in China is expected to grow from RMB 5.7 billion in 2022 to RMB 11.8 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 20% [7] - The company is expected to benefit from stricter LDT (Laboratory Developed Test) regulations, which are driving the return of testing samples to hospitals [7] - The company has 27 product registrations and has made significant breakthroughs in overseas markets, with overseas revenue reaching RMB 196 million in 2023, accounting for 19% of total revenue [7] Market and Industry Analysis - The global molecular diagnostics market is expected to grow from USD 8.7 billion in 2018 to USD 43.4 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 13.13% from 2023 to 2030 [39] - The Chinese molecular diagnostics market is expected to grow from RMB 6.6 billion in 2018 to RMB 970 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 20.2% from 2026 to 2030 [39] - The tumor molecular diagnostics market in China is expected to grow from RMB 7.5 billion in 2022 to RMB 44.7 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 37% from 2026 to 2030 [43] - The top five companies in the Chinese tumor molecular diagnostics market hold a combined market share of 30%, with the company holding an 8% market share [53] Product and Innovation - The company has a comprehensive product line covering PCR, NGS, IHC, and FISH technologies, with 27 Class III medical device registrations [17][19] - The company has launched several significant new products, including the MSI (Microsatellite Instability) product for pan-cancer detection in 2023 and the PCR-11 gene panel, which is expected to be approved soon [7] - The company's PD-L1 companion diagnostic was the first domestically approved product in China and has been recommended by authoritative guidelines [110] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1.23 billion in 2024 to RMB 1.87 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 23% [7] - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 310 million in 2024 to RMB 489 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 25% [7] - The company's gross margin has remained stable at around 84%, with a net margin of 25% in 2023 [33] Overseas Expansion - The company's overseas revenue reached RMB 196 million in 2023, accounting for 19% of total revenue, with a 35% year-on-year growth [7] - The company has established subsidiaries in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Canada, and has partnered with over 100 local distributors [113] - The company's PCR-11 product has been included in Japan's national health insurance reimbursement, contributing to overseas revenue growth [115]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates steady performance growth, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth after excluding the impact of equity incentives [2][4] - The company's diagnostic reagents maintain strong growth, while drug clinical research services are rapidly expanding [2][7] - The company has established a comprehensive companion diagnostic product system from targeted therapy to immunotherapy, positioning itself as a leader in the field of tumor precision diagnosis [2][7] - The company is accelerating its international market expansion, with recent collaborations with global pharmaceutical giants such as Boehringer Ingelheim and Servier [7][8] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 543 million yuan (+18.4% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders of 144 million yuan (+13.5% YoY), and non-GAAP net profit of 132 million yuan (+20.7% YoY) [2][4] - Excluding the impact of equity incentive expenses, H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders would be 161 million yuan (+26.78% YoY), and non-GAAP net profit would be 149 million yuan (+36.13% YoY) [2][4] - The company's gross margin improved to 85.2% (+1.5pp YoY) in H1 2024, with R&D expenses accounting for 19.6% of revenue [9] - The company's operating cash flow remained healthy, with a net operating cash flow of 139 million yuan in H1 2024, representing 96.7% of net profit attributable to shareholders [10] Business Segments - Diagnostic reagents revenue reached 448 million yuan (+16.8% YoY) in H1 2024, with a gross margin of 90.9% (+0.4pp YoY) [7] - Drug clinical research services revenue surged to 60 million yuan (+136.1% YoY) in H1 2024, with a gross margin of 63.0% (+2.0pp YoY) [7] - Domestic sales accounted for 413 million yuan (+16.0% YoY), while international sales and BD business reached 130 million yuan (+26.5% YoY) in H1 2024 [7] Valuation and Forecast - The report slightly revised down the profit forecast, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders of 319/393/482 million yuan for 2024-2026, representing YoY growth of 21.9%/23.2%/22.7% [10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 23/19/15 times for 2024-2026 [10] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 16.3% in 2024E to 18.2% in 2026E [1]

公司点评报告 ·医药行业 24H1 业绩符合预期，院内业务稳健增长 2024 年中报业绩点评 核心观点 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

业绩符合预期，伴随诊断龙头发展稳健 ——艾德生物 2024 年半年报点评 核心观点 ⚫ 业绩符合预期，扣除股权激励费用后盈利表现亮眼。2024H1，公司实现营业收入 5.4 亿元，同比+18.4%；实现归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同比+13.5%，剔除股权激励费 用摊销影响（不考虑所得税影响），实现归母净利润 1.6 亿元，同比+26.8%，扣非 后归母净利润 1.5 亿元，同比+36.1%。从区域拆分看，国内销售收入 4.1 亿元，同 比+16.0%，院内合规优势凸显，行业龙头地位稳固；国际销售及药企商务收入 1.3 亿元，同比+26.5%，国际市场加快开拓，药企合作有效扩大。 从业务拆分看，检测 试剂收入 4.5 亿元，同比+16.8%；检测服务收入 0.3 亿元，同比-28.0%；药物临床 研究服务收入 0.6 亿元，同比+136.1%。 ⚫ 研发产出高效，推进管线上市及合作创新。公司高度重视技术创新，常年研发投入 占当期营收比重超 15%，目前公司已自主研发并在国内获批 27 种肿瘤基因检测产 品，具备多技术、多靶点的综合产品竞争优势；新品方面，实时荧光定量 PCR 分析 仪已于 2024 年 6 月国 ...