Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tehai International (9658.HK/HDL.US) with a target price of HKD 16.6 for the Hong Kong stock and USD 21.3 for the US stock, reflecting a potential upside of 30.7% and 37.4% respectively [1][3][4]. Core Insights - Tehai International's management has a long-term vision to enhance customer dining experiences, expand restaurant networks, improve operational performance, and explore new business formats, aiming to become a leading global integrated dining group [1]. - The company has seen a significant improvement in table turnover rates, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5 to 3.8 times in 1H24, attributed to enhanced employee KPI assessments and optimized business processes [1]. - The company plans to accelerate store openings starting in 2025, with a focus on Southeast Asia and North America, where there is still considerable room for growth [1]. - The management aims to enhance profitability through supply chain optimization, despite an increase in employee costs due to a focus on service quality [1]. - Tehai International is pursuing a multi-brand strategy to drive long-term growth, which may provide additional revenue streams and operational synergies [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from USD 686 million in 2023 to USD 797 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.2% [5][7]. - The net profit is expected to stabilize at USD 24 million in 2024, with a significant increase to USD 67 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 181.3% [5][8]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 65.9% through 2026, while the operating profit margin is expected to improve from 4.2% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2026 [5][6][7]. - The average table turnover rate in Southeast Asia is currently at 3.7, indicating that the market is not yet saturated [1]. Market Positioning - Tehai International's current market capitalization is approximately HKD 8.233 billion and USD 1.018 billion, with a trading range of HKD 8.0-18.3 and USD 13.9-30.0 over the past year [3][4]. - The company is positioned favorably compared to its peers, with a projected PE ratio of 21.6x for H shares in 2024 and 15.7x in 2025 [9].
特海国际：愿景反映公司巨大的增长潜力