产业经济周观点：供需双弱格局显著，制造业周期或全面见底

Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to stabilize, with a bias towards loose monetary policy, while global economic expectations remain stable. Long-term, the potential for interest rate cuts in the US may be limited[1] - Global manufacturing is in an upward cycle, and after the stabilization of the US economy, global manufacturing is likely to recover[1] - The macroeconomic environment overseas is similar to the first half of the year, but the overall improvement may be less than in the first half[1] China Economic Policy - China's economic policy is stable, with overall improvement dependent on exports. The structure of Chinese exports may shift towards capital goods and emerging market countries due to overseas interest rate cuts stimulating investment[1] - Key focus on whether exports can once again drive a recovery in domestic manufacturing, which in turn could stabilize real estate and consumption[1] - Data on industrial enterprises' "volume-price-profit" indicates that the Chinese manufacturing cycle may have fully bottomed out[1] Market Trends - The valuation of growth and value styles is becoming more balanced, with changes on the numerator side being more noteworthy. Marginal improvements on the demand side may guide the numerator side of the market[1] - Key sectors to watch include semiconductor equipment, domestic replacement leaders, banking, automotive lithium batteries, wind and solar exports, pharmaceuticals, engineering machinery, shipbuilding, copper smelting, aluminum processing, and traditional manufacturing leaders[1]