电池及储能行业周报：新能源汽车消费旺季已至，“十四五”收官储能装机旺盛

Investment Rating - The report assigns a standard investment rating to the electric battery and energy storage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the consumption peak season is approaching, with expectations for new energy vehicle (NEV) sales and penetration rates to reach new highs. It forecasts that NEV sales will reach 11.5 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20% [4][14]. - The supply side of the industry is undergoing orderly adjustments, leading to price stabilization across various materials, including lithium salts and battery components [15][16]. - The energy storage market is experiencing robust demand, with a cumulative installed capacity of 103.3 GW as of mid-2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47%. New energy storage installations reached 13.67 GW in the first half of 2024, up 71% year-on-year [18][19]. Summary by Sections Battery Sector - The upcoming "golden September and silver October" period is expected to boost NEV sales, supported by trade-in subsidies and rapid product iterations from automakers. The overall performance in August was strong, particularly for low-cost pure electric models [4][14]. - The supply side is adjusting, with lithium carbonate prices fluctuating due to ongoing negotiations between supply and demand. The price of lithium iron phosphate remains at the breakeven point, while the prices of anode materials are stable near cost levels [15][16]. - Key companies to watch include CATL, which is projected to ship 480 GWh in 2024 with an estimated profit of approximately 46 billion yuan, and Terui, which is expected to benefit from grid investment upgrades and has turned profitable [16][19]. Energy Storage Sector - The report notes a slight decline in the energy storage bidding market, with 13 new projects and a total bidding capacity of 1.86 GW/20.71 GWh. The average winning bid prices for energy storage systems have increased [17][35]. - The energy storage market is expected to maintain rapid growth, with new installations of 48.18 GW/107.86 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 142%. The proportion of pumped storage capacity continues to decline [18][19]. - Companies like Shangneng Electric are highlighted for their comprehensive energy storage business model, which includes upstream inverters and downstream power stations, positioning them as leaders in the domestic market [19].