CHALCO(601600) 民生证券·2024-09-02 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a projected PE of 9, 8, and 7 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][26]. Core Views - The company's integrated layout shows significant advantages, with expectations for asset consolidation in the electrolytic aluminum sector. The self-sufficiency rates for bauxite and alumina are approximately 70% and 100% respectively, indicating a robust integrated structure [2][18]. - The report anticipates a revaluation of the company's value under the "China Special Valuation" framework, as the company is a leader in the aluminum industry and is expected to benefit from national reforms aimed at improving efficiency [2][18]. - The company's performance in H1 2024 exceeded expectations, with a net profit of 7.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105% [1][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Event: Company Releases H1 2024 Report - The company reported a net profit of 7.016 billion yuan for H1 2024, a 105% increase year-on-year. The net profit for Q2 2024 was 4.786 billion yuan, showing a 198% year-on-year increase and a 115% quarter-on-quarter increase [1][7]. 2. H1 2024 Performance: Electrolytic Aluminum and Alumina Profitability - The company produced 8.2 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina in H1 2024, a 2% increase year-on-year, and 3.63 million tons of primary aluminum, a 19% increase year-on-year. The average aluminum price was 19,798 yuan/ton, up 1,310 yuan/ton year-on-year [8][10]. 3. Q2 2024 Performance: Significant Year-on-Year and Quarter-on-Quarter Growth - In Q2 2024, the company produced 1.85 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, a 7% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 32% increase year-on-year. The average market aluminum price increased by 1,490 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter [15][16]. 4. Integrated Layout Advantages - The company has established a complete industrial layout from upstream (bauxite, alumina, prebaked anodes, coal, electricity) to downstream (electrolytic aluminum), enhancing its risk resistance [18][23]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 13.428 billion yuan, 15.393 billion yuan, and 17.345 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating strong growth potential [2][26].