华阳股份：煤炭Q2产销量回升，资源增储6.3亿吨

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huayang Co., Ltd. (600348.SH) [1] Core Views - The company's coal business faced pressure due to declining prices despite a rebound in production and sales volumes. The average selling price of coal decreased by 8.72% year-on-year, while the average cost per ton increased by 2.01% year-on-year, leading to a significant drop in gross profit margins [1][3] - The electricity business showed a remarkable turnaround, with a 429.94% increase in power generation year-on-year, resulting in a revenue of 0.982 billion yuan, up 686.69% year-on-year [3] - The acquisition of coal exploration rights in the Yujiazhuang block is expected to enhance the company's coal resource reserves, aligning with its long-term development strategy [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 35,046 million yuan, which decreased to 28,518 million yuan in 2023, and is projected to decline further to 23,891 million yuan in 2024, before recovering to 26,068 million yuan in 2025 and 28,428 million yuan in 2026 [1][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7,024 million yuan in 2022, dropping to 5,179 million yuan in 2023, with an expected further decline to 2,451 million yuan in 2024, followed by slight recoveries in subsequent years [1][5] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 26.9% in 2022 to 8.8% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 9.0% by 2026 [1][7] Business Segment Performance - The coal segment reported a revenue of 9.788 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, down 27.63% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 3.735 billion yuan, reflecting a 42.99% decline in gross profit margin [2][3] - The electricity segment achieved a revenue of 0.982 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a gross profit margin of 7.69%, marking a significant improvement compared to the previous year [3] Future Outlook - The report forecasts revenues of 23.891 billion yuan, 26.068 billion yuan, and 28.428 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.451 billion yuan, 2.533 billion yuan, and 2.613 billion yuan in the same years [3][5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.68 yuan, 0.70 yuan, and 0.72 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10.6x, 10.3x, and 10.0x [3][5]