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运营商专题:中报总结:行稳致远、攻防兼备
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-09-02 10:03

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on Hong Kong-listed China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as their A-share counterparts [3]. Core Insights - The overall revenue and net profit of the operators showed steady growth in the first half of 2024, with revenue structures continuously optimizing. China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom reported revenues of CNY 546.7 billion, CNY 266.0 billion, and CNY 197.3 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.0%, 2.8%, and 2.9%. Net profits were CNY 80.2 billion, CNY 21.8 billion, and CNY 6.0 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.3%, 8.2%, and 10.9% respectively, indicating that profit growth outpaced revenue growth [2][3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Mid-Year Analysis - The revenue growth of the telecom operators has slowed down due to macroeconomic factors and demographic changes, with a notable peak in revenue during 2021-2022 driven by rapid 5G user growth [7]. 2. Business Analysis - C-end data traffic business faced pressure but is expected to improve, while H-end user numbers and ARPU remained stable. The B-end is anticipated to benefit from new growth driven by AI computing and models [2][39]. 3. Operational Governance - The operators are expected to increase dividends, with China Mobile and China Telecom aiming for a 75% payout ratio over the next three years. Capital expenditures are decreasing, and the depreciation ratio is declining, which will enhance profit margins [2][76][72]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the developments in AI computing and models, as well as the operators' ability to maintain healthy cash flows and manage accounts receivable effectively [2][14][61]. 5. Future Outlook - The operators are projected to maintain stable performance, with revenue growth closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. The reduction in capital expenditures and extended depreciation periods are expected to support steady growth in earnings [86].