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房地产行业周报(2024年第35周):住建部研究建立房屋体检、房屋养老金、房屋保险制度
CAITONG SECURITIES·2024-09-02 10:03

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry, but it suggests a positive outlook based on policy support and market recovery potential [4][33]. Core Insights - The real estate sector outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index rising by 2.55% while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.17%, indicating a 2.72 percentage point outperformance [4][8]. - The report highlights a significant decline in property transaction volumes, with a 42.5% year-on-year decrease in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities [4][13]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is exploring the establishment of housing inspection, pension, and insurance systems to enhance housing safety management [4][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 2.55%, ranking 12th among 31 sectors [4][8]. - The top five performing stocks in the sector included *ST Zhongdi and Te Fa Service, while the worst performers included Rong An Real Estate and Zhongxin Group [10][11]. 2. Sales Overview - Total commercial housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 1.66 million square meters, down 2.1% month-on-month and 42.5% year-on-year [4][13]. - In the first eight months of 2024, the total transaction area was 6.164 million square meters, a 33.8% decrease year-on-year [13][17]. 3. City-Level Sales Analysis - First-tier cities showed mixed results, with Beijing's new housing transactions up 28.3% month-on-month, while Shanghai's fell by 17.4% [20][21]. - Among second-tier cities, Jinan had the highest month-on-month increase at 84.9%, while Hangzhou experienced a significant year-on-year decline of 76.4% [23][24]. - In third and fourth-tier cities, Shaoxing saw a remarkable month-on-month increase of 1535.9%, while Huizhou faced a 73.6% decline [25][27]. 4. Inventory and Absorption - New housing inventory in first-tier cities showed slight increases, with Beijing's inventory up 0.2% and Shanghai's down 0.4% [28][29]. - The absorption periods for new housing varied, with Beijing at 21.01 months and Shanghai at 7.80 months [29]. 5. Land Market Overview - The report provides insights into the land market, indicating ongoing transactions in first and second-tier cities, with varying premium rates [30][31]. - Recent data shows fluctuations in land transaction volumes and prices across different city tiers [32].