中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】通信陈宁玉：运营商专题-中报总结：行稳致远、攻防兼备-20240902

Core Insights - The report highlights that the three major telecom operators in China, namely China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, achieved stable revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2024, with revenues of CNY 546.7 billion, CNY 266 billion, and CNY 197.3 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 3.0%, 2.8%, and 2.9% [2][3] - The net profits for these operators were CNY 80.2 billion, CNY 21.8 billion, and CNY 6 billion, showing year-on-year increases of 5.3%, 8.2%, and 10.9%, indicating that profit growth outpaced revenue growth [2][3] - Emerging business revenues reached CNY 227.9 billion, growing by 11.4% year-on-year, which now accounts for 25.5% of total telecom business revenue, demonstrating an ongoing optimization of revenue structure [2][3] Telecom Operators Performance - The cash flow from operations for the telecom operators remained robust, indicating a healthy financial position [2] - Consumer data traffic has faced pressure, but there is potential for improvement due to anticipated increases in application traffic driven by AIGC [2][3] - The average revenue per user (ARPU) for mobile services has declined, primarily due to reductions in corporate communication benefits, but is expected to recover as new applications emerge [2][3] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the three major operators are likely to increase their dividend payouts, with China Mobile and China Telecom aiming for a payout ratio of 75% over the next three years [2][3] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease, and the lengthening of depreciation periods will contribute to improved profit margins [2][3] - The current valuation metrics for the telecom operators, including price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, are lower than global comparables, indicating potential undervaluation alongside high dividend yields [2][3] AI and Emerging Business Growth - The telecom operators are focusing on AI computing and model monetization, with cloud computing growth rates around 20%, driven by market demand shifting towards AI capabilities [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of AI-related business developments as a key growth area for the operators [2][3]