ACC(600585) China Post Securities·2024-09-02 12:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance relative to the benchmark index within a range of -10% to 10% over the next six months [9]. Core Views - The demand in the industry remains under pressure, but profitability is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year [4]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 45.566 billion yuan, down 30.44% year-on-year, and net profit at 3.326 billion yuan, down 48.56% year-on-year [5]. - The company's cement and clinker sales volume for the first half of 2024 was 12.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.35% year-on-year, which is better than the industry average decline of 10% [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 141 billion yuan, with a significant drop to 102.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 27.4% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 10.43 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.88 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 24.4% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.97 yuan in 2023, dropping to 1.49 yuan in 2024 [8]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The cost of cement clinker for the first half of 2024 was 188 yuan per ton, down 16.03% year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices [6]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 is estimated at 52 yuan per ton, down 29% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of reduced industry demand [6]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates ongoing supply-demand imbalances in the industry, with a focus on normalizing staggered production to prevent excessive competition [6]. - Long-term expectations include the introduction of carbon emission policies in the cement industry, which may lead to stricter capacity replacement regulations [6].