Economic Indicators - The US CPI and unemployment rate for July were reported at 2.9% and 4.3%, indicating signs of economic cooling[13] - The NAHB housing market index fell from 51 in April to 39 in July, marking three consecutive months of decline[13] - The 30-year mortgage rate decreased from a high of 7.8% in October 2023 to 6.35%[13] Credit and Banking - The credit card delinquency rate for the bottom 100 US banks rose to 7.79%, exceeding the 2008 level of 5.61%, while the top 100 banks' rate was only 3.01%[13] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 25bps and 50bps with probabilities of 67% and 33% respectively in the upcoming meeting on September 18, 2024[13] Currency and Exchange Rates - The offshore RMB funding rate (CNH HIBOR) dropped from 5.76% on July 24 to 1.22% by the end of August, indicating improved liquidity[3] - The USD/CNH exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around 7.15 in the short term, with potential for RMB appreciation towards the end of 2024[3] Bond Market - The 10-year government bond yield increased by 2bps to 2.17%[19] - The central bank purchased 100 billion RMB in bonds in August, focusing on short-term bonds while selling long-term ones[19] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices closed below $79 per barrel amid concerns over demand despite supply disruptions from Libya[4] - The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 850,000 barrels to 425.2 million barrels[4] Investment Trends - Foreign investment in Chinese bonds increased by 787 billion RMB from January to July 2024[3] - The overall performance of major assets showed black commodities outperforming the RMB exchange rate and Asian stocks[11]
FICC&资产配置周观察：如何看待近期人民币汇率升值空间？
Donghai Securities·2024-09-02 12:01