2024年化妆品板块中报总结：分化加剧，强者恒强

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Overweight" rating for the cosmetics sector [4] Core Insights - The cosmetics sector showed a revenue and profit growth of 17% and 25% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, indicating improvement compared to the second half of 2023 [2][9] - Despite a weak overall retail performance in Q2 2024, strong brand momentum is expected to sustain high growth, particularly for leading domestic brands [2][9] - The report highlights a significant divergence in performance among companies, with strong brands continuing to gain market share [9][18] Summary by Sections 1. 618 Online Sales Trends - Q2 2024 cosmetics retail sales decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, but the 618 online sales event is projected to achieve double-digit growth, indicating a potential recovery in demand [7][9] - The overall retail sales for cosmetics from January to July 2024 showed a slight increase of 0.3%, lagging behind the overall consumer goods growth by 3.2 percentage points [7] 2. Performance Summary for 2024 H1 & Q2 - The cosmetics sector's revenue and profit for H1 2024 reached 233 billion and 27 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7% and 8% [9][10] - Q2 2024 revenue and net profit were 126 billion and 13 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4% but a decline of 3% in profit [11][12] - Companies like Proya, Juzhiyuan, and Shiseido showed remarkable performance with revenue growth rates of 38%, 58%, and 121% respectively in H1 2024 [9][18] 3. Fund Holdings - The average holding ratio of domestic institutions in the cosmetics sector increased to 9.58% in Q2 2024, up by 5.52 percentage points from the previous quarter [9] 4. Valuation - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the cosmetics sector has generally fallen to a low range of 15-25x [9] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong brand companies such as Proya and Juzhiyuan, as well as value-driven companies like Runben and Shangmei [3][9]