个护家清行业2024中报总结：需求延续弱复苏，品牌与渠道为胜负手

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the personal care and home care industry, consistent with the previous rating [4] Core Views - The industry's demand side is still in the recovery process, with brand and channel capabilities being the key differentiators for revenue growth [3] - Companies with aggressive product strategies and multi-channel layouts are expected to see gradual profit release, with Baiguo Co recommended as a top pick [3] - E-commerce channels are offsetting weak recovery, with sub-categories contributing incremental growth [3] - Revenue performance is diverging, with brand and channel capabilities becoming the decisive factors for growth [3] - Product structure improvements are driving gross margin growth, while increased marketing spending is suppressing profitability [3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Baiguo Co is recommended due to its aggressive product strategy and multi-channel layout, with expected EPS of 0.82/1.06/1.41 yuan for 2024-2026 and a target price of 27.54 yuan [3] - The industry's recovery is weak, with personal care and home care categories slowing down and price competition intensifying [3] - E-commerce penetration continues to rise, with female purchasing power driving growth in the sanitary napkin category [3] E-commerce Channels and Sub-Category Growth - National retail sales grew by 3.7% YoY in H1 2024, showing a weak recovery trend [8] - Personal care category sales declined by 2.8% in Q1 2024, while home care growth slowed to 2.2% due to high base effects [8] - Consumers are less likely to reduce spending on personal and home care products compared to other categories, indicating industry resilience [10] - E-commerce penetration in the sanitary napkin category grew by 54.16% from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024, with panty liner products growing by 84.61% [13] Revenue Performance and Brand/Channel Capabilities - Revenue performance varies, with some OEM companies experiencing declines while those with strong brands and channels or benefiting from inventory cycle recovery are growing faster [17] - Baiguo Co's revenue growth exceeded expectations, driven by strong e-commerce performance and rapid growth in peripheral provinces [19] - Robust Medical's revenue growth was driven by high growth in core products, with its medical consumables business growing by 6.6% YoY in Q2 2024 [21] Product Structure and Profitability - Raw material costs have fluctuated slightly, with overall gross margins remaining stable [22] - Baiguo Co's gross margin improved by 7 pct YoY in H1 2024, driven by a higher proportion of mid-to-high-end products [23] - Robust Medical's gross margin was dragged down by a decline in infection protection product margins, but the upward trend is expected to continue as the brand strengthens [23] Marketing and Competition - The industry is in a stable, slow-growth phase, with intense competition leading to increased marketing spending and lower net profit margins [25] - Baiguo Co's net profit margin declined by 2.0 pct YoY in Q2 2024 due to a 10.2 pct increase in sales expenses [27] Cash Flow and ROE - Industry operating cash flow generally increased, with Baiguo Co's ROE reaching 13.2% in H1 2024, driven by improved asset turnover [33] - Companies like Haoyue Nursing, Yiyi Co, and Robust Medical maintained high dividend payout ratios, reflecting confidence in long-term development [33]