EBSCN·2024-09-02 14:07Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Guotai Junan Securities (601211.SH) with a current price of 14.76 CNY [1]. Core Views - Guotai Junan is expected to benefit from capital market reforms and marginal improvements in the capital market, despite uncertainties in performance recovery due to the current volatile A-share market [4]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 17.07 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, while net profit was 5.02 billion CNY, down 12.6% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 8.89 billion CNY (down 17.0%), 9.46 billion CNY (down 15.2%), and 9.86 billion CNY (down 14.3%) respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.00, 1.06, and 1.11 CNY [4]. - The weighted average ROE for the first half of 2024 was 3.11%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points from the previous year [4]. Business Segments - The revenue breakdown for H1 2024 shows self-operated, brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and credit business revenues at 29.7%, 18.0%, 6.8%, 11.3%, and 6.1% respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.3%, -1.1%, -1.6%, -0.1%, and -2.3 percentage points [5]. - The brokerage business faced pressure with net income of 3.08 billion CNY, down 12.1% year-on-year, while interest income decreased by 32.2% to 1.04 billion CNY [5]. - The investment banking segment saw a decline in revenue, with a main underwriting amount of 434.59 billion CNY, up 26.4% year-on-year, and a market share of 9.2% [5]. - The asset management business reported a net income of 1.92 billion CNY, down 8.1% year-on-year, with total assets under management reaching 739.48 billion CNY, an increase of 9.5% from the previous year [5]. Market Context - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 984.6 billion CNY, down 6.8% year-on-year, indicating a shrinking market environment [5]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position, ranking third in the industry for investment banking, despite the overall market challenges [5].