青岛啤酒：成本改善较多，基地市场贡献利润

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The beer industry landscape is clear and stable, with the company expected to continue benefiting from its base markets in Shandong and North China, despite short-term pressure on prices due to macroeconomic challenges [3] - The company reported a revenue of 20.068 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.641 billion yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year [1][2] - The company’s Q2 revenue slightly declined by 8.9% year-on-year to 9.918 billion yuan, with sales volume down by 8.0% to 2.45 million kiloliters [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 20.068 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.641 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year [1] - The Q2 revenue was 9.918 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.9% decline year-on-year, with a sales volume of 2.45 million kiloliters, down 8.0% [1] - The average revenue per kiloliter was 4,055 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year [1] Regional Performance - Revenue contributions from various regions in H1 2024 were as follows: Shandong (12.911 billion yuan, -4% YoY), North China (3.739 billion yuan, -8% YoY), East China (1.357 billion yuan, -17% YoY), South China (1.465 billion yuan, -10% YoY), Southeast (356 million yuan, -30% YoY), and other overseas regions (236 million yuan, -33% YoY) [1] - Shandong and North China showed profit growth of 19% and 11% year-on-year, respectively, while profits in East China and South China declined by 53% and 6% year-on-year [1] Cost and Margin Analysis - The company’s net profit margin improved to 20.6% in Q2 2024, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 42.8%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The cost per kiloliter decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, contributing to the improvement in gross margin [2] Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 3.29 yuan, 3.54 yuan, and 3.89 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 17, and 15 [3]