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申洲国际:2024H1业绩点评:上半年订单修复,公司利润增长强劲

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - Strong profit growth driven by order recovery in H1 2024 [2] - Revenue increased by 12.2% YoY to RMB 12.976 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 37.8% YoY to RMB 2.931 billion [2] - Sales net margin improved to 22.6%, up 4.2 percentage points YoY, and gross margin increased to 29.0%, up 6.6 percentage points YoY [2] - Significant growth in domestic and Japanese markets, with domestic revenue up 20.0% and Japanese revenue up 27.0% [2] - The company's market share among major clients has further increased, particularly in the domestic and Japanese markets [2] Business Breakdown By Product Category - Sportswear: RMB 9.213 billion, up 7.6%, accounting for 71.0% of total revenue [2] - Casualwear: RMB 2.761 billion, up 20.0%, accounting for 19.9% of total revenue [2] - Underwear: RMB 903 million, up 47.4%, accounting for 7.0% of total revenue [2] - Other knitwear: RMB 99.5 million, up 12.2%, accounting for 0.7% of total revenue [2] By Region - Europe: RMB 2.527 billion, up 4.4%, accounting for 19.5% of total revenue [2] - USA: RMB 1.881 billion, up 2.7%, accounting for 14.5% of total revenue [2] - Japan: RMB 2.116 billion, up 27.0%, accounting for 16.3% of total revenue [2] - Other markets: RMB 2.728 billion, up 7.4%, accounting for 21.0% of total revenue [2] - Domestic market: RMB 3.724 billion, up 20.0%, accounting for 28.7% of total revenue [2] Operational Highlights - Improved capacity utilization and increased efficiency in overseas factories contributed to the significant improvement in gross margin [3] - Sales/management/financial expense ratios were 0.7%/7.3%/1.5%, with management expenses decreasing by 0.6 percentage points YoY [3] - Operating cash flow was RMB 2.310 billion, down 14.6% YoY, with cash and cash equivalents at RMB 10.082 billion, down RMB 1.514 billion from the end of 2023 [3] Future Outlook - Revenue is expected to grow by 11%/12%/12% in 2024/2025/2026, reaching RMB 27.641 billion, RMB 31.045 billion, and RMB 34.701 billion respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 29%/14%/12% in 2024/2025/2026, reaching RMB 5.863 billion, RMB 6.672 billion, and RMB 7.444 billion respectively [5] - The company plans to expand overseas production capacity, particularly in Vietnam, and enhance employee incentives and talent development programs [5] Valuation - As of August 30, 2024, the stock price was HKD 64.40, with a P/E ratio of 15/13/12X for 2024/2025/2026 [5] - The company's ROE is expected to be 15.4%/15.1%/14.6% in 2024/2025/2026, with a gross margin of 29.2%/29.5%/30.2% [6]