GANFENG LITHIUM(002460) 东吴证券·2024-09-02 21:36Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with a steady increase in self-supply rate from the mining end [1] - H1 2024 revenue was 9.59 billion yuan, down 47.2% YoY, with a net loss of 760 million yuan, down 113% YoY [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was 4.53 billion yuan, down 48% YoY and 10.4% QoQ, with a net loss of 320 million yuan, down 109.3% YoY but up 26.8% QoQ [2] - The company's lithium salt shipments in Q2 increased slightly, with H1 shipments expected to exceed 60,000 tons, and full-year 2024 shipments projected to reach 120,000 tons, up 15% YoY [2] - The company is continuously expanding high-quality lithium resources, with a self-supply rate expected to reach around 50% in 2024 [3] - Q2 operating cash flow improved significantly, with H1 operating cash flow reaching 3.94 billion yuan, up 246.5% YoY [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 16.317 billion yuan, with a net loss of 623 million yuan, and EPS of -0.31 yuan per share [1] - Revenue for 2025E is projected at 17.512 billion yuan, with net profit of 1.234 billion yuan, and EPS of 0.61 yuan per share [1] - Revenue for 2026E is projected at 20.034 billion yuan, with net profit of 1.803 billion yuan, and EPS of 0.89 yuan per share [1] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is -84.07, for 2025E is 42.44, and for 2026E is 29.05 [1] Key Financial Metrics - H1 2024 gross margin was 15.9%, up 9.3 pct YoY and 9.8 pct QoQ [2] - H1 2024 operating expense ratio was 17.6%, up 10.4 pct YoY [3] - H1 2024 capital expenditure was 4.55 billion yuan, down 13.8% YoY [3] - Inventory at the end of Q2 2024 was 8.12 billion yuan, up 16.6% from Q1 [3] Lithium Resource Expansion - The Marion project produced 360,000 tons of concentrate in H1 2024, with sales of 340,000 tons, contributing 150 million yuan in investment income [3] - The Goulamina lithium project in Mali is expected to produce its first batch of spodumene products in 2024, with the company holding a 60% stake [3] - The Cauchari-Olaroz project in Argentina is expected to produce 20,000-25,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2024, with the company holding a 47% stake [3] - The Mariana salt lake project in Argentina is expected to start trial production by the end of 2024 [3] Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is 55.129 billion yuan [5] - The company's latest closing price is 27.33 yuan, with a 52-week range of 25.34-49.65 yuan [1]