NHD(002946) 中国银河·2024-09-03 00:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, reflecting its strong operational resilience and clear five-year strategic plan [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 5.36 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 300 million yuan, up 25.3% year-on-year [1] - The company's low-temperature liquid milk segment stabilized, outperforming other leading dairy companies, with low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt products showing significant growth [1] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 29.1%, driven by favorable raw milk prices and product structure optimization, while sales and management expense ratios decreased [1] - The company's fresh strategy is expected to continue driving growth, with low-temperature product penetration and DTC channels serving as key growth engines [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 24H1 was 5.36 billion yuan, with Q2 revenue at 2.75 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.9% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 24H1 was 300 million yuan, with Q2 net profit at 210 million yuan, up 17.7% year-on-year [1] - The company's net profit margin for 24Q2 was 7.5%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] Product and Regional Performance - Low-temperature fresh milk products, such as the "Golden 24 Hours" series, saw over 30% year-on-year growth, while low-temperature yogurt and flavored milk products also experienced strong growth [1] - Regional performance varied, with strong growth in East China (+20.2%) and North China (+23.4%), while Southwest and Northwest regions faced declines due to weaker demand for ambient liquid milk [1] Future Outlook - The company's fresh strategy is expected to drive continued revenue growth, with raw milk cost advantages likely to persist in 24H2 [1] - The company aims to achieve a five-year doubling of net profit margin through improved gross margins, upstream optimization, and enhanced cost efficiency [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow to 11.19 billion yuan in 2024, 11.80 billion yuan in 2025, and 12.59 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to reach 549 million yuan, 653 million yuan, and 772 million yuan respectively [3] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 14X in 2024 to 10X in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [3]