A股饮料制造板块震荡回调，皇氏集团跌近7%，庄园牧业跌超5.5%，新乳业、骑士乳业、贝因美、*ST 椰岛等跟跌。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is positioned to lead in the low-temperature dairy market, with a focus on enhancing profitability through strategic initiatives and product innovation [2][23] - The overall dairy industry in China is experiencing a downturn, but low-temperature dairy products are gaining traction due to their freshness and functional benefits, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [2][10] - The company aims for double-digit compound annual growth in revenue from 2023 to 2027, with a target to double its net profit margin [2][45] Industry Overview - The dairy industry in China is under pressure, with a projected decline in the milk and yogurt market from 2022 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of -4.18% [9] - Low-temperature dairy products are outperforming their ambient counterparts, with their market share increasing from 29.97% to 33.82% for yogurt and from 16.53% to 16.91% for fresh milk between 2021 and 2023 [2][18] - The competitive landscape for low-temperature dairy is relatively fragmented, with significant room for market concentration compared to the high concentration in ambient dairy products [2][21] Company Overview - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 10.665 billion in 2024, with a product matrix that includes both ambient and low-temperature dairy products [2][25] - The company has established a national presence through three rounds of acquisitions, differentiating itself from major competitors like Yili and Mengniu [2][29] - The company operates 52 subsidiaries and has a diverse brand portfolio under the "New Hope" umbrella, optimizing resource allocation across its brands [2][25] Growth Drivers - The company is expected to achieve revenue and profit growth in 2023-2024, driven primarily by the performance of low-temperature products [2][58] - The company maintains a strong focus on high-quality milk sources, with approximately 60% of its supply coming from self-owned and joint-venture sources [2][64] - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel is a core strategic focus, with plans to increase its contribution from 15% to 30% by 2027 [2][78] Profitability Enhancement Path - The company's net profit margin is expected to improve primarily due to an increase in gross margin, supported by an optimized cost structure [2][83] - The company has consistently achieved a double-digit revenue contribution from new products, indicating a strong innovation pipeline [2][68] - The gross margin is projected to rise as the company continues to enhance its product mix and optimize operational efficiencies [2][84]

Group 1: Core Views - The report suggests that the food and beverage industry is expected to see a valuation recovery as market sentiment improves, with a focus on low-priced leading companies in the liquor sector and structural opportunities in the food sector [2][7][10]. Group 2: Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is experiencing a phase of demand decline due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to pressure on high-end liquor prices, while mass consumption remains stable [7][13]. - Major companies like Moutai are expected to maintain their performance due to strong brand positioning, while others are entering an adjustment phase, with varying adjustment speeds among companies [7][14]. - Q2 performance forecasts for major liquor companies indicate a range of revenue and profit changes, with Moutai expected to see a 9% increase in both revenue and profit [14][15][16]. Group 3: Food Sector - The food sector shows signs of recovery, with segments like beverages, snacks, and pet food experiencing upward trends, while beer and restaurant supply chains face structural challenges [21][24]. - The beverage industry remains vibrant with new product launches and a clear trend towards reduced sugar options, while competition intensifies [24][30]. - Dairy products are seeing mixed performance, with some segments like low-temperature dairy and cheese growing, while others face challenges [24][33]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading liquor companies with a safety margin for investment, as well as food companies that are expected to exceed mid-year performance expectations [10][28]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Nongfu Spring, Uni-President China, and Tianwei Foods, among others [10][28].

"入行十年来，第一次见到这么贵的黄柠檬。" 近日，"柠檬疯涨似黄金""柠檬水成本飙升" 等话题频现社交平台，据「央视财经」报道，今年夏季柠檬价格大幅上涨，部分品种较去年同期涨价3至5 倍，四川安岳等地柠檬价格波动剧烈。 农业农村部全国农产品批发市场价格信息监测数据显示，去年6月至今，全国柠檬的批发价格始终保持上涨态势，2025年7月已达到14.47元/公斤，而去年 同期价格仅为7.76元/公斤，同比涨幅超过80%。 更直观的对比是，柠檬的价格已经超过了被称作是"水果贵族"的荔枝——在小象超市APP中，500g的安岳黄柠檬价格为13.8元，而同样500g的玉荷包荔枝 仅需9.9元。 从最早英国发源的柠檬红茶，到20世纪香港茶餐厅的冻柠茶，再到如今各大新茶饮品牌......"流水的新品，铁打的柠檬"。这颗酸涩的小水果，始终是饮品 界不可或缺的一员。 市面上常见的柠檬，除了当下涨价最猛的黄柠檬，还有青柠檬、香水柠檬和小青柠等。作为手打柠檬茶主要原材料的香水柠檬也曾经历过一波价格的爆 发。 2019到2022年，因手打柠檬茶持续出圈，香水柠檬的价格涨幅曾达30倍，价格甚至一度飙升到35元/斤。然而，到了2024年夏天 ...

● 2025年以来，消费复苏缓慢，传统食品饮料需求承压，细分板块呈现结构性机会。建议优先关注成长性较强的零食，以及处于 向上修复阶段的啤酒和乳制品。 ● 啤酒：需求边际改善，成本下行释放利润弹性。2024年终端消费较弱，啤酒龙头推进渠道库存去化，库存水平处于历史低位， 板块估值回落至5年低分位。2025年1-5月社零餐饮收入同比有所改善，在旺季低基数和消费政策刺激下，啤酒销售数据修复确 定性较高，有望催化估值抬升。另外成本仍处于下行周期，叠加产品结构持续优化，利润弹性可期。建议关注生鲜高端化优势突 出，盈利改善稳健的青岛啤酒和成长势能强劲的燕京啤酒。 ● 零食：品类与渠道共振，高成长延续。零食板块呈现高景气度和高成长性，强品类与新渠道持续催化。从产品来看，消费者需求 升级趋势明显，健康功能性零食备受关注，以魔芋为代表的产品快速出圈，兼具健康属性和味觉体验，实现高增。从渠道来看， 零食量贩跑马圈地后，两大龙头占据主要市场份额。此外，会员商超渠道崛起，选品引领行业潮流，成为各大零食企业新的发力 点。建议关注盐津铺子、劲仔食品。 ● 乳制品：供需格局逐步改善，静待周期拐点到来。生鲜乳价格持续创年内新低，奶牛养殖亏损 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for structural growth opportunities [20][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a stabilization in the price of Moutai, suggesting a potential improvement in sentiment within the liquor sector. It notes that while short-term demand fluctuations may lead to a slowdown in the liquor sector in Q2 2025, leading companies are working to maintain price stability, and smaller companies are adapting to consumer trends [20][21]. - The snack segment is experiencing stable performance in traditional channels, with rapid growth in membership supermarket channels. New products are expected to be launched in the second half of 2025, and the pet food sector is also showing good growth [20][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product quality enhancement, channel expansion, and innovative marketing strategies as key methods for companies to navigate current market challenges [20][21]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Luzhou Laojiao is improving market inventory and plans to expand its distribution network to four million terminals over the next five years. The company is also developing lower-alcohol products [11][12]. - Yanghe Co. has appointed new leadership, which is expected to drive organizational adjustments and enhance operational dynamics. The company continues to innovate its product line [12]. - Jiugui Liquor is focusing on channel adjustments and has partnered with a retail chain to explore new growth avenues [13]. - New Dairy is benefiting from cost advantages, leading to stronger profit release capabilities, with a focus on low-temperature milk products [14]. - Jinzai Food is in a cautious operational phase, with stable performance in traditional and snack channels [15][16]. - Zhongchong Co. is seeing continued growth in its self-owned brands, despite some export challenges [17]. - Petty Co. is expanding its product offerings in both snacks and staple foods, with a focus on New Zealand's production capacity [18]. - Anji Food has successfully listed its H shares, raising approximately 2.302 billion HKD [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on growth sectors influenced by changing consumer trends, with specific recommendations for companies like Zhongchong Co., Guobao Pet Food, and Nongfu Spring [21]. - It also highlights structural growth opportunities in the restaurant chain recovery, recommending companies such as Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer [21]. - For traditional consumer goods, it advises investing in leading liquor companies and dairy products, with a focus on companies like Yili and New Dairy [21]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is characterized by a total of 143 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 478.1 billion RMB [4]. - The industry has shown a mixed performance, with a 1-month absolute performance of -4.7% and a 12-month performance of 28.2% [6].

公司基本情况 证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 | 最新收盘价（元） | 17.71 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）8.61 | / 8.51 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）152 | / 151 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 21.35 / 7.98 | | | 资产负债率(%) | 64.6% | | | 市盈率 | 28.56 | | | 第一大股东 | Universal | Dairy | | Limited | | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 新乳业(002946) 低温延续增长势头，常温呈现积极变化 l 投资要点 公司推新能力强，新品助力公司营收利润不断增长。公司新品主 要聚焦在高毛利的低温品类，新品的推出在提升收入的同时也改善了 公司整体的产品结构。新乳业持续打 ...

21世纪经济报道记者贺泓源北京报道 | 姓名 | 性别 | 年齢 | 职务 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 席刚 | 場 | 53 | 重事长 | 现任 | | Liu Chang | 女 | 45 | 重事 | 现任 | | 李巍 | 女 | 72 | 重量 | 现任 | | 朱川 | 場 | રેરે | 董事、总裁 | 现任 | | 刘栩 | 場 | 45 | 畫事 | 现任 | | 戸市基 | 場 | 53 | 独立董事 | 现任 | | 景で | 場 | 53 | 独立董事 | 现任 | | 杨志清 | 場 | 63 | 独立董事 | 现任 | | 陈碧 | 女 | 48 | 独立董事 | 现任 | 新乳业的董事会。图片来源：该公司2024年年报 刘畅的新乳业 需要注意的是，此番减持，对于新乳业的股权结构影响非常有限。 此前披露的公告显示，截至2024年末，新乳业总股本为8.61亿元，自然人LiuChang（刘畅）通过UDL持有新乳业股权比例为65.07%；新希望集团董事长刘永 好通过新希望投资集团持有新乳业15.41%的股份。 刘永好之女刘畅正在减持她个 ...

茶饮行业过去 30 年的发展阶段是什么样的？ 茶饮行业过去 30 年经历了三个主要阶段。第一个阶段是奶精、茶粉等工业化 产品占据主导地位，这个时期供给创造需求，只要有奶茶就有市场。第二个阶 段从 1996 年至 2015 年，是缓慢发展阶段，以原材料多样化为特征，小料多 样化也是这一时期的重要变化。第三个阶段从 2016 年至今，是高度发达成熟 期，消费者对原材料要求愈发苛刻，高价鲜水果、代糖及加工程度更高的小料 层出不穷。 野村东方国际：寻求出海增量，新茶饮企业路在何方 20250702 摘要 蜜雪冰城海外营收高速增长，2022 和 2023 年同比增速分别达 900% 和 175%，远超国内水平，且盈利能力更强。霸王茶姬在新加坡门店月 销售额约 180 万元人民币，高于中国大陆平均水平 43 万元，表明海外 市场潜力巨大。 茶饮行业经历了三个阶段：工业化产品主导、原材料多样化缓慢发展， 以及消费者对高品质原料的成熟期。目前，消费者对原材料要求苛刻， 高价鲜水果、代糖及高加工小料成为趋势。 不同地区对中国茶饮品牌接受度各异。东南亚市场因热带气候和年轻人 口结构提供广阔空间，多小料和热带水果受欢迎；日韩市场需 ...

Core Points - The announcement details the conversion of the company's convertible bonds and the changes in its share capital as of the second quarter of 2025 [2][5]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Issuance - The company issued 7.18 million convertible bonds with a total value of 718 million yuan, approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2][3]. - The bonds were listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on January 19, 2021, under the name "New Dairy Convertible Bonds" with the code "128142" [2]. Group 2: Conversion Price Adjustments - The initial conversion price was set at 18.69 yuan per share, which has been adjusted multiple times due to various corporate actions, with the latest adjustment bringing it to 17.95 yuan per share as of June 26, 2025 [3][5]. - Adjustments were made on several occasions due to the implementation of stock incentive plans and annual profit distribution [3][4][5]. Group 3: Conversion and Share Changes - In the second quarter of 2025, the company experienced a reduction in convertible bond amounts by 53,700 yuan, with a total of 537 bonds converted into 2,948 shares [5]. - As of June 30, 2025, the remaining amount of convertible bonds was 717.8864 million yuan, with 7.178864 million bonds still outstanding [5].