Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing improved supply and demand dynamics, leading to a stabilization and recovery in coal prices. The report highlights that the demand for thermal coal is expected to grow due to increased industrial electricity consumption and a seasonal decline in hydropower generation [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for price stability in domestic thermal coal, driven by steady economic policies and a favorable demand outlook [1][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - Thermal Coal: As of August 30, the price of Shanxi mixed Q5500 at Guangzhou Port increased to 920 CNY/ton, a weekly change of +12.2%. The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim remained stable at 844 CNY/ton, with a slight weekly increase of +0.72% [1][12]. - Metallurgical Coal: The price of main coking coal in Shanxi remained stable at 1550 CNY/ton, while the price at Jing Tang Port increased by 5.36% to 1770 CNY/ton. The demand for metallurgical coal is expected to improve due to a recovery in steel prices and production [1][20]. - Coke and Steel Industry Chain: The average price of metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of -2.76%. The report notes a rebound in coke prices due to improved supply and demand dynamics [1][31]. - Coal Transportation: The coastal coal transportation price index increased by 1.42% to 599.4 points, indicating a rebound in transportation demand [1][36]. 2. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector showed a rebound, outperforming major indices like the CSI 300. The CITIC coal index closed at 3481.30 points, reflecting a weekly increase of +2.33% [1][45]. 3. Industry Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the coal prices are likely to remain stable and may trend upwards in the third quarter, with expectations of improved company performance due to higher capacity utilization [1][6]. - Recommended stocks include those with stable dividends and strong performance history, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as companies with high certainty in their operations like China Coal Energy [1][6].
煤炭行业周报:供需继续改善,煤价整体企稳回升
Shanxi Securities·2024-09-03 00:10