CSEC,China Shenhua(601088) 开源证券·2024-09-03 00:39Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for China Shenhua (601088 SH) [2] Core Views - High long-term contracts support strong earnings resilience, with sustained high dividends highlighting investment value [1][4] - H1 2024 revenue reached 168 08 billion RMB, down 0 8% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 29 5 billion RMB, down 11 3% YoY [4] - Q2 2024 revenue was 80 43 billion RMB, down 8 2% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 13 62 billion RMB, down 14 3% QoQ [4] - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts are 58 08 billion, 60 24 billion, and 61 29 billion RMB, respectively, with EPS of 2 92, 3 03, and 3 08 RMB [4] - Current PE ratios are 13 9x, 13 4x, and 13 1x for 2024-2026 [4] Business Performance Coal Business - H1 2024 coal production reached 163 2 million tons, up 1 6% YoY, with sales of 229 7 million tons, up 5 4% YoY [4] - Average coal price was 566 RMB/ton, down 5 8% YoY, with self-produced coal price at 533 RMB/ton, down 4 9% YoY [4] - Self-produced coal cost was 191 7 RMB/ton, up 2 0% YoY, with gross margin per ton at 224 RMB/ton, down 14 2% YoY [4] - Q2 2024 coal production was 81 9 million tons, up 0 7% QoQ, with sales of 112 6 million tons, down 3 8% QoQ [4] Power Business - H1 2024 installed capacity increased by 188 MW to 44,822 MW, with power generation and sales at 104 04 billion kWh and 97 89 billion kWh, up 3 8% and 3 9% YoY, respectively [4] - Power segment gross profit was 7 42 billion RMB, down 4 6% YoY, with gross margin at 16 0%, down 0 8 pct YoY [4] - Q2 2024 power generation and sales were 48 69 billion kWh and 45 73 billion kWh, down 12 0% and 12 3% QoQ, respectively [4] Growth Prospects - Coal production capacity is expected to expand further, with acquisitions and new mining licenses supporting growth [4] - High long-term contract ratios and integrated operations ensure stable profitability [4] - Dividend payout ratio was 75 2% in 2023, with a projected 2024 dividend yield of 5 4% [4] - Historical dividend payout ratios from 2020-2023 were 91 8%, 100 4%, 72 8%, and 75 2%, consistently exceeding the minimum commitment of 60% [4]