金证股份：公司半年报点评：业绩短期承压，信创升级持续推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to industry market fluctuations In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2 347 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13 94%, and a net loss attributable to the parent company of 81 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 223 19% [6] - Financial business revenue remained stable year-on-year, with significant growth in asset management IT and customized services In H1 2024, financial business revenue was 936 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0 83% year-on-year, while asset management IT revenue increased by 58 74% to 85 million yuan, and customized services revenue grew by 15 98% to 435 million yuan [6] - Non-financial business segments contracted overall, with IT equipment distribution revenue declining by 19 00% to 1 272 billion yuan, and digital economy revenue falling by 47 02% to 90 million yuan [6] - The company continues to invest in core technologies to ensure long-term competitiveness, with R&D expenses reaching 269 million yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2 15%, and an R&D expense ratio of 11 47%, up 1 81 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company is steadily advancing the upgrade of its core products in the financial technology sector, with significant progress in the development and promotion of its next-generation trading system FS2 5 and asset management system A8 [7][9] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to grow steadily from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 6 306 billion yuan, 6 448 billion yuan, and 6 622 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 1 4%, 2 3%, and 2 7% respectively [9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 417 million yuan, 490 million yuan, and 606 million yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 12 9%, 17 5%, and 23 7% respectively [9] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve, rising from 23 8% in 2023 to 27 7% in 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 5 9% in 2023 to 9 1% in 2026 [8][11] Market Performance and Valuation - The company's stock price has experienced significant volatility, with a 52-week range of 8 85-14 15 yuan, and a closing price of 9 40 yuan on September 2, 2024 [2] - The company's market performance has underperformed the broader market, with a year-to-date decline of 37 27% as of June 2024, compared to the Haitong Composite Index [3] - The report assigns a 2024 dynamic PE range of 26-30x, with a fair value range of 11 44-13 20 yuan per share, based on comparable company valuations [9][10]