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9月月报:风格切换,乐观一些
Guohai Securities·2024-09-03 01:33

Economic Overview - The domestic economy is stabilizing at a low level, with structural improvements noted in consumption and infrastructure, leading to marginal recovery in demand [8][12][23] - In August, external demand remained strong, with expectations for continued robust performance in manufacturing and exports, particularly during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season [8][12] - The "export rush" effect is expected to contribute positively to China's total exports, with estimates suggesting a boost of 0.7% to 1.5% [8][12] Liquidity - Domestic and international liquidity is approaching a turning point, with the Federal Reserve expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, which may open a window for easing transactions [3][25] - The micro liquidity situation is improving structurally, with increased buying of small-cap growth-related ETFs [3][25] - The market is experiencing a shift in sentiment, with a focus on the pace and depth of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [25][34] Policy and Risk Appetite - Domestic policies are expected to continue supporting internal demand, with an emphasis on fiscal spending and monetary policy adjustments to stimulate consumption and real estate [3][4] - The report highlights the importance of local-level support for discretionary consumption and real estate policies [4][3] September Industry Allocation - The preferred sectors for September include automotive, electronics, and pharmaceutical biotechnology, as the performance advantage of growth stocks over value stocks begins to expand [2][3] - The report indicates that the easing of monetary policy and the anticipated recovery in consumer spending will benefit these sectors [3][4]