有色行业周报：鲍威尔鸽派发言奠定九月降息基调，金价续创历史新高

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for precious metals [2][11]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the timing for adjusting monetary policy has arrived, with market expectations for a rate cut in September. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts further drive market hedging activities, leading to a positive outlook for gold prices in the medium to long term [2][11]. - The Politburo meeting emphasized the commitment to achieving annual economic development goals, with policies like "equipment updates + trade-in" expected to boost demand, supporting a favorable outlook for industrial metal prices [2][11]. - For small metals and new materials, the report highlights investment opportunities driven by price increases that improve industry and company profitability. The rare earth market shows stable supply and increased transactions, with expectations for price stability and improvement [2][11][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Investment Recommendations - Powell's remarks suggest a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with geopolitical tensions remaining unresolved, which is expected to keep gold prices high [2][11]. - The industrial metals sector is expected to benefit from domestic demand driven by government policies aimed at economic stabilization [2][11]. 2. Weekly Sector Performance Review - The non-ferrous metals index saw a slight decline of -0.39% for the week ending August 23, 2024, ranking third among 31 sectors [14]. - The performance of sub-sectors included gold (+4.13%), copper (+0.32%), and aluminum (-0.75%) [16]. 3. Price and Inventory Performance 3.1 Precious Metals - As of August 23, 2024, COMEX gold closed at $2508.4 per ounce, up 0.39% from the previous week, while silver rose 3.5% to $29.786 per ounce [21][23]. 3.2 Industrial Metals - LME copper and aluminum prices increased by 1.5% and 8.96%, respectively, while SHFE copper prices slightly decreased by 0.04% [25][26]. 3.3 Energy Metals - Lithium and cobalt prices continued to decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate down 1.2% to 74,300 yuan per ton [30]. 3.4 Small Metals and New Materials - Rare earth prices showed a positive trend, with neodymium oxide prices increasing by 1.55% [36]. 4. Important News of the Week - Powell's statements regarding the readiness to adjust monetary policy highlight the potential for future rate cuts, which could impact the overall economic landscape and financial markets [43].