【粤开宏观】出口系列研究之二：如何看待产业外迁与企业出海？

Industry Migration Trends - China's export share of 305 product categories declined by more than 1 percentage point from 2015 to 2023, with resource-intensive and labor-intensive industries being the most affected[14] - Australia's mineral material export share increased by 18.45 percentage points from 2015 to 2023, surpassing China to become the world's largest exporter in 2022[17] - Vietnam's export share in garments, footwear, hats, and woven products increased by 2.0, 8.3, 3.7, and 2.9 percentage points respectively from 2015 to 2023[19] New Wave of Corporate Globalization - The second wave of Chinese corporate globalization, starting in 2021, is characterized by companies in the automotive, machinery, and electrical equipment industries, with 2023 overseas revenue reaching 859.6 billion yuan, a 33.5% increase[29] - The number of non-financial overseas enterprises increased by 1,483 in 2023, reaching 7,913, with non-financial outbound direct investment amounting to 130.13 billion yuan[25] - The automotive industry's overseas revenue in 2023 was 859.6 billion yuan, accounting for 22.1% of total revenue, a 3 percentage point increase from the previous year[29] Challenges and Risks - The risk of industrial "hollowing out" is a concern if key industrial chain segments are not retained, with China's manufacturing share of GDP declining by 5.9 percentage points from 2007 to 2023[60] - The employment pressure in industries such as textiles, footwear, and hats has increased, with the number of employees in large-scale enterprises dropping from 4.495 million in 2015 to 2.315 million in 2022[64] - Trade protectionism and geopolitical risks are intensifying, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on $360 billion worth of Chinese goods since 2018, leading to a 7.4 percentage point decline in China's share of U.S. imports[49] Policy and Strategic Responses - China is promoting high-level opening-up, opposing unilateralism and trade protectionism, and supporting the development of global value chains[65] - The government is simplifying outbound investment procedures and providing tax incentives, export credit insurance, and other support measures to facilitate corporate globalization[66] - Efforts are being made to enhance the resilience and security of industrial chains by increasing R&D investment and addressing key technological bottlenecks[66]