Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy-A rating for Tongxingbao (301339 SZ) with a 6-month target price of 22.62 CNY, representing a potential upside from the current price of 17.96 CNY [1] Core Views - Tongxingbao is a leader in the ETC electronic toll collection industry and is expected to benefit from the upcoming ETC 2 0 OBU replacement wave [6] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 9 11 billion CNY, 11 45 billion CNY, and 14 29 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 2 34 billion CNY, 2 94 billion CNY, and 3 75 billion CNY for the same periods [6] Business Performance - In H1 2024, Tongxingbao reported revenue of 3 28 billion CNY, a 18 18% YoY increase, and net profit of 1 06 billion CNY, up 8 01% YoY [2] - Q2 2024 revenue reached 1 75 billion CNY, a 21 32% YoY growth, with net profit of 612 32 million CNY, up 6 84% YoY [3] Segment Breakdown - Smart Traffic Electronic Toll Collection: Revenue of 1 83 billion CNY, up 5 31% YoY, with ETC issuance revenue of 1 13 billion CNY, up 11 65% YoY [3] - Smart Traffic Operation Management Systems: Revenue of 1 26 billion CNY, up 38 86% YoY, with products now covering approximately 20 provinces and cities nationwide [3] - Smart Traffic Derivative Business: Revenue of 190 04 million CNY, up 45 56% YoY, driven by ETC user base and data advantages [3] Market Position and Expansion - Tongxingbao has established partnerships with 16 automakers including SAIC, Changan, Geely, Tesla, NIO, and Jaguar Land Rover, as well as Fuyao Glass, for ETC pre-installation [3] - The company has a 12 9% market share in ETC issuance, up from 10 17% at the end of 2023 [3] Industry Trends and Opportunities - The company is deeply involved in Jiangsu Province's smart transportation construction, benefiting from the national "Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration" pilot program [4] - Tongxingbao is expected to participate in the digital transformation of transportation infrastructure, with projects set to be completed by 2027 [5] Financial Projections - The report forecasts a 22 8% revenue growth in 2024, 25 8% in 2025, and 24 7% in 2026, with net profit margins remaining stable at around 25 6%-26 3% [8][10] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 8 1% in 2022 to 12 2% in 2026, driven by operational efficiency and market expansion [8] Valuation Metrics - The stock is trading at a 2024E P/E of 31 76x, 2025E P/E of 25 37x, and 2026E P/E of 19 83x, with a 2024E P/B of 2 69x [8] - The target price of 22 62 CNY implies a 40x 2024E P/E, reflecting the company's growth potential in the ETC and smart transportation sectors [6]
通行宝：24H1业绩稳增，受益于江苏省车路云建设