白酒行业2024年中报总结：挤压式增长，分化再加剧

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The white liquor industry has entered a traditional off-season since Q2 2024, with a noticeable decline in terminal demand. The "Matthew Effect" continues to manifest, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing stronger performance certainty. In terms of price segments, high-end liquor achieved a revenue growth of 15.2% year-on-year in H1 2024, leading among all price segments. As of September, the industry is transitioning from the traditional off-season to the peak season of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with demand expected to recover and stabilize prices for mainstream products [2][10]. Revenue Analysis - High-end liquor shows stable performance, while other liquor companies exhibit significant differentiation. In H1 2024, three high-end liquor companies achieved a combined revenue of CNY 151 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. In Q2 2024, their quarterly revenue reached CNY 60.5 billion, up 14.2%, ranking first among all price segments. The second-tier liquor segment shows mixed results, with Fenjiu leading, while Shede entered an adjustment period with negative revenue growth in Q2. Despite a slowdown in Q2 compared to Q1, companies like Gujinggongjiu, Jinshiyuan, and Yingjiagongjiu maintained over 20% revenue growth in H1 2024 [2][15][18]. Profit Analysis - Overall expenses are contracting, with differentiation across price segments. The average gross margin for the sector in H1 2024 and Q2 2024 was 81.2% and 81.1%, respectively, both showing year-on-year increases. High-end liquor companies like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao maintained stable gross margins, while Wuliangye's gross margin increased by 0.6 percentage points in H1 2024 and 1.7 percentage points in Q2 2024. In the second-tier segment, most companies saw a decline in Q2 gross margins, while leading real estate liquor companies showed an upward trend in gross margins year-on-year [2][22][23]. Cash Flow and Prepayments - Brand strength is evident, with leading companies showing better cash collection. In Q2 2024, sales cash collection showed differentiation among three liquor companies, with Moutai and Wuliangye experiencing year-on-year increases of 22.6% and 93.4%, respectively. In terms of prepayments, Wuliangye performed exceptionally well, with a 61.6% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2 2024. In the second-tier segment, Fenjiu's prepayments increased by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, while Shede's saw a significant decline of 30.9% [2][10][18]. Investment Recommendations - Since 2021, the valuation of the white liquor sector has continued to decline and is currently at historically low levels. Leading liquor companies are increasing dividend returns, and from the perspective of PB-ROE analysis, these companies are undervalued. Given the performance differentiation observed in the second quarter, the market is expected to reassess after inventory clearance. Core recommendations include Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujinggongjiu, Jinshiyuan, and Yingjiagongjiu [3][10].