证券研究报告行业周报：关注1500亿特别国债对消费的拉动效果

Investment Rating - The report rates the commercial trade industry as "Neutral" [4] Core Insights - The implementation of the special government bonds worth 150 billion RMB is expected to significantly boost consumer spending, potentially generating around 750 billion RMB in market sales [1][10] - The July retail sales growth of 2.7% was below market expectations, indicating a slow recovery in overall consumer demand [3][11] - The government has issued new guidelines to promote high-quality service consumption, emphasizing the importance of service sectors in driving economic growth [25][26] Monthly Consumption Macro Summary - In July, the total retail sales reached 37,757 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, which is lower than the expected 3.03% [11][12] - The retail sales of goods amounted to 33,354 billion RMB, also growing by 2.7% year-on-year, while dining revenue increased by 3.0% to 4,403 billion RMB [11][14] - The growth rate of rural consumption outpaced urban consumption, reflecting the vitality and potential of the rural market [11][12] Service Consumption Development - The State Council's recent opinion on promoting high-quality service consumption outlines 20 key tasks across six areas, aiming to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate demand [25][26] - The focus is on improving service quality in sectors like dining, tourism, and entertainment, which are expected to drive long-term growth in service consumption [25][26] Industry Performance - The commercial trade index has seen a decline of 25.18% year-to-date, indicating significant challenges within the sector [34][36] - The retail sector is experiencing a divergence, with traditional retail formats facing pressure while convenience stores and supermarkets show signs of recovery [12][14] Consumer Trends - Digital, green, and health consumption are emerging as new trends, with significant growth in categories like communication equipment and sports entertainment products [27][28] - The demand for essential consumer goods remains robust, while discretionary spending shows signs of weakness, particularly in categories like cosmetics and jewelry [16][19]