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银行专题|详细拆解国有大型银行(六家)2024年半年报:利润增速边际改善,资产质量保持稳健
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-09-03 07:00

Industry Investment Rating - Maintain Overweight rating [1] Core Views - State-owned banks' revenue in 1H24 is under marginal pressure due to slowing scale growth, but profit growth has improved marginally due to provision releases [1] - Asset quality remains stable, with high provisions and sufficient capital ensuring sustainable performance [1] - Revenue declined by 3% YoY in 1H24, with net profit down 1% YoY, showing a narrowing decline due to provisions [1] - Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and special mention loan ratio remain stable or slightly declining, with low new NPL generation pressure [2] - Provision coverage ratio increased by 1.9 percentage points to 243%, providing a thicker safety cushion [3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue declined by 3% YoY in 1H24, mainly due to slower credit growth, with Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) achieving positive growth of 0.2% [8] - Net profit declined by 1% YoY, with ABC achieving positive growth of 2%, while other major banks saw narrowing declines due to provision releases [10] - Net interest income declined by 3% YoY, with a 1.1% marginal decline, mainly due to slower asset scale expansion [14] - Net non-interest income declined by 2.9% YoY, with other non-interest income increasing by 15.8%, partially offsetting the decline [29] Asset Quality - NPL ratio remained stable or slightly declined, with the overall NPL ratio at 1.28% in 1H24 [33] - New NPL generation rate increased slightly but remained at a low level of 0.49% [34] - Special mention loan ratio declined by 5bp to 1.66%, indicating limited future NPL pressure [36] - Overdue loan ratio increased by 9bp to 1.23%, but remained at a low level [38] Provision Analysis - Provision coverage ratio increased by 1.9 percentage points to 243.09%, with Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) having the highest coverage ratio at 325.61% [41] - Provision-to-loan ratio increased by 1bp to 3.12%, with ABC having the highest ratio at 4% [41] - Risk cost and credit cost increased slightly, indicating room for further provision releases [41] Other Financial Indicators - Cost-to-income ratio declined, showing effective cost control measures [3] - Core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio slightly declined by 9bp to 12.31%, remaining at a high level [3] - Major banks announced interim dividend plans, with payout ratios around 30% [3]