MEITUAN(03690) 天风证券·2024-09-03 07:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690) with a target price of 116.3 HKD [5] Core Views - Meituan's Q2 2024 revenue and profits exceeded Bloomberg consensus estimates Revenue reached 82.3 billion RMB, 2% above expectations, while EBIT was 11.3 billion RMB, 29% above expectations Adjusted net profit was approximately 13.6 billion RMB, 28% above expectations [5] - Core local commerce revenue was 60.7 billion RMB, 1% above expectations, and new business revenue was 21.6 billion RMB, 5% above expectations [5] - The company's core competitiveness lies in its strong merchant base and decades of accumulated user reviews, which solidify its moat [5] Business Segment Analysis Core Local Commerce - Q2 2024 revenue was 60.7 billion RMB, with delivery service revenue at 23 billion RMB, commission revenue at 22.1 billion RMB, and online marketing revenue at 12.3 billion RMB Operating profit was 15.2 billion RMB, 24% above Bloomberg consensus [5] - Food delivery maintained stable growth with improved operational efficiency, user retention, and order frequency The company focused on improving shelf model operations and enhancing "cost-effective" products [5] - Meituan Instant Delivery achieved strong growth with increasing annual transacting users and faster order frequency The company expanded its Meituan Lightning Warehouses and deepened supply chain integration [5] - In-store dining and hotel & travel saw over 60% YoY order growth in Q2 2024 The company expanded its "Shen Membership" program and invested in lower-tier markets [5] New Business - Q2 2024 new business revenue was 21.6 billion RMB, with operating losses narrowing to 1.3 billion RMB, 38% better than Bloomberg consensus [5] - Meituan Youxuan improved operational efficiency through better product quality and supplier collaboration, leading to increased unit prices and price-to-cost ratios [5] - Xiaoxiang Supermarket made significant progress in product, operations, and fulfillment, achieving higher growth and efficiency than industry peers [5] - Other new businesses, including B2B food delivery, RMS, shared bikes, and power banks, all achieved healthy growth and efficiency improvements [5] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Meituan's 2024-2026 revenue to be 3347/3843/4333 billion RMB (previous estimates: 3292/3809/4293 billion RMB) [5] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 408/606/724 billion RMB (previous estimates: 364/530/650 billion RMB) [5]