PAIKE(605123) 国盛证券·2024-09-03 07:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2024 was impacted by fluctuations in demand, but there is potential for recovery as downstream demand stabilizes. The company has also seen significant growth in overseas revenue and established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore to further expand international operations [2]. - The company is positioned as a core supplier of aerospace ring forgings in China, and if demand in the aerospace sector recovers, it is expected to maintain a stable growth trend [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 165 million yuan, down 44.60% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 896 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.68% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.50% [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 21.52%, a decrease of 5.20 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 10.04%, down 5.01 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s inventory increased by 9.67% compared to the beginning of the period, indicating a proactive approach to raw material procurement in anticipation of demand growth [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to be 3.544 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decline of 2.1% year-on-year, followed by growth rates of 21.5% and 16.3% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 423 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.0%, with subsequent increases to 555 million yuan in 2025 and 688 million yuan in 2026 [3]. Market Position and Future Prospects - The company has established itself in the aerospace sector, covering multiple models of aircraft engines and benefiting from stable domestic demand. It is also involved in the Long March series of rockets and various missile support, which are expected to see growth with the acceleration of satellite communication and missile production [2]. - The company’s international business is expanding, with overseas revenue reaching 280 million yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50.37% [2].