Guoyuan Securities·2024-09-03 08:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD, indicating an expectation of stock price appreciation above the benchmark index by more than 15% within the next six months [4][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that BYD's performance in the first half of 2024 aligns with expectations, showing a revenue increase of 15.76% year-on-year to CNY 301.13 billion and a net profit growth of 24.44% to CNY 13.63 billion [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing global penetration of new energy vehicles, with anticipated market share growth both domestically and internationally [4]. - The successful pre-sale of the Tengshi Z9 is seen as a pivotal moment for BYD's strategy in the mid-to-high-end market segment [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, BYD achieved revenue of CNY 176.18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41.01%. The net profit for the same period was CNY 9.06 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.80% and a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 98.36% [2][3]. - The report notes a decrease in single-vehicle revenue and gross margin, with estimated single-vehicle revenue at approximately CNY 135,000, down by CNY 19,000 from the previous quarter, and a gross margin of 22.3%, down by 3.9 percentage points [3]. Profitability Outlook - The single-vehicle net profit (excluding non-recurring items) for Q2 2024 was CNY 870, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of CNY 270, attributed to scale effects and a reduction in R&D expenses by CNY 1.601 billion [3]. - The report anticipates continued improvement in single-vehicle net profit metrics due to decreasing fixed asset depreciation and ongoing scale effects [3]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for BYD from 2024 to 2026 are CNY 36.55 billion, CNY 52.64 billion, and CNY 71.49 billion, respectively. The corresponding earnings per share are expected to be CNY 12.56, CNY 18.08, and CNY 24.56, with price-to-earnings ratios of 19.20, 13.33, and 9.82 [4][5].