国产商用大飞机行业深度系列报告（二）：C919 批量交付带动航空产业链增长，核心系统有望逐步实现国产替代

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the defense and military industry, specifically focusing on the domestic commercial aircraft sector, with a positive outlook on the growth driven by the C919's mass delivery and potential for domestic substitution in core systems [1] Core Views - C919's Mass Delivery Phase: The C919 has entered the mass delivery phase, with confirmed orders exceeding 800 units and over 700 units in tentative orders By June 2024, the C919 fleet of China Eastern Airlines is expected to reach 10 aircraft, marking the full-scale commercial procurement, delivery, and operation of the C919 [1] - Competitive Advantages of C919: The C919 offers several competitive advantages, including a lower catalog price of $0 99 billion per unit (approximately ¥7 13 billion at an exchange rate of 7 2:1), a wide-view cockpit design, and the use of advanced materials such as third-generation aluminum-lithium alloys and composites, which account for 26 2% of the aircraft's structural weight [1] - International Supply Chain System: The domestic commercial aircraft industry adopts an international supply chain system, with state-owned enterprises leading the development and private enterprises collaborating to cultivate a local supply chain system This includes strategic partnerships with international suppliers and the establishment of joint ventures for localized production [1] - High Demand for Core Components: The report highlights the high demand and significant value contribution of core components such as the airframe structure and onboard systems, which account for 30%-35% and 25%-30% of the total value of a civil aircraft, respectively [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Commercial Aircraft Development - ARJ21 and C919 Certification: Both ARJ21 and C919 have completed all airworthiness certification processes, with ARJ21 having delivered over 120 units and C919 entering mass delivery phase [1][6] - Order Backlog: As of June 2024, ARJ21 has secured at least 775 orders (610 confirmed, 165 tentative), while C919 has over 1500 orders (800 confirmed, 700 tentative) [1][11] - Market Competition: C919 competes directly with Boeing's B737 MAX 8 and Airbus's A320neo, with a lower catalog price and advanced design features such as a wide-view cockpit and improved aerodynamics [1][14][18] Supply Chain and Localization - International Collaboration: The supply chain strategy involves international collaboration, with domestic suppliers focusing on metal structures and foreign suppliers providing high-tech components like transparent windshields and complex bearings [1][26] - Localization Efforts: Domestic suppliers are continuously working to localize high-tech components, with the goal of reducing reliance on foreign suppliers in the long term [1][26] Core Components and Market Potential - Airframe Structure: The airframe structure, which accounts for 30%-35% of the aircraft's value, is primarily supplied by domestic companies such as AVIC XAC, which is responsible for 50% of the airframe structure's workload [1][38] - Onboard Systems: The onboard systems, including avionics and electromechanical systems, account for 25%-30% of the aircraft's value Domestic companies like AVIC Systems are expected to benefit significantly from the C919's production, with projected revenue increases of ¥12 53 billion by 2025 and ¥76 54 billion by 2030 [1][56][58] Future Market Demand - Global Market Projections: Boeing projects that 32,630 single-aisle aircraft will be delivered globally from 2023 to 2042, with China accounting for 20% of this demand The C919 is expected to capture a significant share of this market, with a projected demand of 2,588-6,477 units over the next 20 years [1][33]