7月财政数据点评：支出低位改善，财政仍有发力空间

Revenue Insights - From January to July, general public budget revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, primarily due to last year's tax relief policies[1] - Tax revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 5.4%, marking a continuous negative growth phase[1] - Non-tax revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, showing a significant improvement compared to previous values[1] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 2.5% year-on-year, with a completion rate of 54.5%[1] - Central government expenditure increased by 9.3%, while local government expenditure rose by 1.5%, indicating a notable disparity in growth rates[1] - Infrastructure-related spending showed marginal improvement, suggesting potential for further investment[1] Fund and Debt Dynamics - Land transfer revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.3%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market[1] - Government fund revenue fell by 18.5% year-on-year, while expenditure also decreased by 16.1%[1] - The issuance of special local government bonds accelerated, with a completion rate of 45.5% in July, although overall progress remains slow[2] Future Outlook - The acceleration in the issuance of special bonds is expected to bolster local fiscal efforts, supporting growth stability in the upcoming quarter[2] - Continued issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds is anticipated to further enhance fiscal expenditure progress in Q3[2] Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with potential deviations from expected economic recovery and macroeconomic policies exceeding forecasts[2]