Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the coal industry [1][3]. Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a slight recovery in sentiment, with supply and demand dynamics showing signs of stabilization. However, the overall demand is expected to shift back to industrial use as residential cooling needs decrease with the cooling weather [1][3]. - The report highlights that while the coal price adjustments have largely been absorbed, the long-term value proposition for coal companies remains intact due to stable assets and cash flows, supporting high dividend payouts [3][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - From August 26 to August 30, 2024, the coal index rose by 1.91%, with sub-sectors like coking coal and coke showing increases of 2.55% and 2.31% respectively [9]. 2. Key Industry Data 2.1 Thermal Coal - As of August 30, 2024, the price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 725.00 CNY/ton, a 0.14% increase week-on-week. The prices in Shanxi and Shaanxi showed slight declines [13][34]. - Inventory levels at major northern ports were 30.48 million tons, down 0.46% week-on-week but up 4.10% year-on-year [16][35]. 2.2 Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1,770.00 CNY/ton, up 5.36% week-on-week. Coking coal inventories at three ports totaled 3.51 million tons, up 2.34% week-on-week [20][35]. 2.3 Downstream Demand - National electricity consumption reached 766.9 billion kWh, a 20.83% year-on-year increase. However, coal consumption is expected to decline as the peak summer demand subsides [27][34]. 3. Industry News - The report notes a decline in revenue for the coal mining sector, with a 21.7% drop in profits for the coal extraction and washing industry in the first seven months of 2024 [32]. 4. Key Company Announcements - China Shenhua reported a revenue of 168.08 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 0.81% year-on-year, influenced by falling coal prices and reduced electricity sales [33]. 5. Weekly Insights - The supply of thermal coal is stable, with minor reductions expected due to seasonal factors. The demand for coking coal is influenced by the steel market, with speculative buying increasing but overall demand remaining weak [34][35].
煤炭行业周报:钢材市场成交转好,焦煤开启触底反弹
CHINA DRAGON SECURITIES·2024-09-03 11:07