博雅生物：聚焦血制品领域提升毛利率

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 33.79, indicating a potential upside of 3% from the current price of RMB 32.77 [1][12]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing its gross margin through a strategic shift towards blood products, which have shown stable growth driven by sales of PCC and factor VIII products. However, the outlook for non-blood products remains uncertain due to significant revenue declines in related segments [4][9]. - The report highlights a significant drop in revenue for the first half of 2024, primarily due to the divestiture of non-blood product businesses, but notes an improvement in gross margin to 67.03%, up 17.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][7]. - Revenue forecasts for blood products are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.9% to 14.1% from 2024 to 2026, while non-blood product segments are expected to decline [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 1H24, the company reported revenue of RMB 896 million, a decrease of 42% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 316 million, down 3% [7][9]. - The blood products segment generated RMB 790 million in revenue, reflecting a 3.6% increase year-on-year, while the biochemical drug segment saw a 45% decline [8][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted downwards by 37% to RMB 1,887 million, with net profit estimates revised to RMB 597 million, reflecting a 2% increase from previous estimates [11][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 1.18, with subsequent years showing growth to RMB 1.35 in 2025 and RMB 1.51 in 2026 [11][12]. Valuation - The report employs a two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, adjusting the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to 8.7% and maintaining a perpetual growth rate of 1% [12][13]. - The target price of RMB 33.79 corresponds to a 2025 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25x, slightly above the average of comparable companies [12][14].