Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$23.28 [3][9]. Core Views - JD Logistics is expected to benefit from the Chinese government's subsidy policies, leading to accelerated revenue growth in Q2 2025 [1][9]. - The expansion of the workforce to support new business initiatives may pressure short-term profit margins, with a forecasted decline in gross margin from 11.9% in Q2 2024 to 10.9% in Q2 2025 [2][9]. - The completion of the acquisition of Kuayue Express is anticipated to significantly reduce minority interests, potentially increasing the net profit attributable to shareholders by approximately 15% for the full year 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Q2 2025 revenue is expected to grow faster year-on-year, driven by increased consumer demand for home appliances and electronics due to government incentives [1]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at RMB 205.51 billion, reflecting a 12.4% increase from 2024 [10]. Profitability - Gross margin is projected to decline to 10.9% in Q2 2025, influenced by rising labor costs from workforce expansion [2]. - Non-IFRS net profit margin is expected to decrease to 5.0% in Q2 2025, down from 5.6% in Q2 2024 [2]. Valuation - The current trading P/E ratio is 10.6 times the expected earnings for 2025, which is considered attractive compared to domestic peers [3]. - The target price of HK$23.28 suggests a potential upside of 77% from the current price of HK$13.16 [4][9]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS), with estimates of RMB 1.18 for 2025, RMB 1.32 for 2026, and RMB 1.56 for 2027 [4][10]. - The expected revenue growth rates for 2025 and 2026 are 12.4% and 9.0%, respectively [10].

2025 年 7 月 11 日 耐用消费品及服装: 中性 证券研究报告 / 业绩预览报告 李宁 (2331 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$19.30) 预计 1H25 营收与利润端分别同比+2%/ -16% 预计 1H25 营收与归母净利润分别同比+2%/ -16%：1）当前李宁跑鞋矩阵表现良好，但篮 球品类仍承压，短期缺乏催化剂，我们预计李宁 2Q/1H25 流水同比增长 1%-2%。由于春/ 夏换季所涉及产品差异相对有限，李宁上半年营收增速与流水增速基本趋同，我们预计 1H25 营收同比增长 2.0%至 146.3 亿元。2）销售承压下，2Q25 零售折扣可能有所加深， 我们预计 1H25 毛利率同比下降 0.5pct 至 49.9%；费用摊销效应也将有所减弱，预计归母 净利率同比下降 2.4pcts 至 11.2%，对应归母净利润同比下滑 16.0%至 16.4 亿元。 区间交易逻辑不变：李宁去年在扩张承压下，大幅加深商品宽度驱动增长（宽度增加 35%- 40%、深度下降高单位数），但今年在更高基数之下继续加宽风险收益比可能有所降低， 尤其库存管理难度势必继续增加。今年产品端除跑鞋与篮球鞋矩阵的常规迭 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Micron Technology (MU US) with a target price of US$107.00, indicating a potential downside of 12% from the current price of US$122.24 [1][19][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Micron's revenue and net profit for the second half of FY25 are expected to meet market expectations, but there are concerns that the revenue and net profit forecasts for FY2026-27 are overly optimistic [6][10][19]. - The report notes that the recent price increases in DRAM products, particularly DDR4 and DDR5, are driven by limited supply and strategic production cuts by major players like Micron and Samsung [7][11][19]. - The report emphasizes that while Micron's HBM revenue exceeded expectations, the predictability of new orders is declining, and there has been a decrease in contract prices for traditional DRAM and NAND products [8][20]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating and Price Target - The investment rating is "Hold" with a target price of US$107.00, up from a previous target of US$84.00, reflecting a 27% increase in the target price [2][19]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY2025 to US$7.14 (up 11%), FY2026 to US$10.42 (up 31%), and FY2027 to US$6.29 (up 12%) [2][10]. Revenue and Profitability Outlook - Revenue for FY2025 is projected at US$36,766 million, with a growth rate of 46%, while FY2026 revenue is expected to reach US$49,992 million, reflecting a growth rate of 36% [10][19]. - The report indicates that the market's expectations for Micron's revenue and net profit in FY2026-27 are too high, with projected net profits lower than market consensus by 10.1-48.2% [10][12][20]. Market Comparison and Price Trends - The report compares Micron's revenue forecasts with market predictions, noting a slight positive deviation for FY2025 but a negative deviation for FY2026 [5][18]. - The report highlights significant price increases in DRAM products, particularly due to supply constraints and production cuts by major manufacturers [7][11]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, assigning a P/E multiple of 10x for the DRAM segment and 5x for the NAND segment, leading to a total valuation of US$116.83 billion [19][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Marvell Technology Group (MRVL US) with a target price of US$110.42, indicating a potential upside of +43% from the current price of US$77.16 [1][8]. Core Insights - Marvell is expected to benefit significantly from the growth in capital expenditures by major U.S. cloud service providers, with projected spending increasing from US$200 billion in 2024 to over US$300 billion in 2025 [3]. - The company has made substantial investments in advanced process and packaging technologies, achieving mass production of 3nm and 5nm processes, and is currently testing 2nm chips [4]. - Marvell has secured 18 chip projects that are in various stages of development and production, with some expected to contribute to revenue in the fiscal year 2027 [3]. Financial Summary - Projected revenue growth shows an increase from US$5,508 million in 2024 to US$11,623 million by 2028, reflecting a strong upward trend [7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from US$1.54 in 2024 to US$4.69 in 2028, indicating improved profitability [7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 34.5 in 2024 to 16.4 by 2028, suggesting a more attractive valuation over time [7].

2025 年 7 月 3 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 医药 发挥医保引领作用，全方位扶持创新药发展 事件：2025 年 6 月 30 日，国家医保局发布《支持创新药高质量发展的若干措施》（以下 称措施）的通知，以进一步完善全链条支持创新药发展举措。 多角度扶持创新药研发：《措施》主要从数据应用、投资、上市准入和研发方向针对创新 药研发的薄弱环节，提出支持创新药研发的多项举措。《措施》提出探索为创新药研发提 供必要的医保数据服务；依托全国统一的医保信息平台，做好疾病谱、临床用药需求等数 据归集和分析，支持医药企业、科研院所、医疗机构等合理确定研发方向、布局研发管 线，提升创新效率。《措施》还提出鼓励商业健康保险公司通过创新药投资基金等多种方 式，为创新药研发提供稳定的长期投资，培育支持创新药的耐心资本。 通过多层次医疗保障体系扶持创新药销售：《措施》提出要通过充分运用药物经济学、卫 生技术评估等技术方法，通过医保目录和商业健康保险创新药品目录支持真创新和差异化 创新。根据《措施》要求，健全基本医保药品目录动态调整机制，由医保部门与创新药企 业谈判形成与中国国情和市场地位相匹配、符合药品临床价值的医保支付 ...

2025 年 6 月 30 日 耐用消费品及服装: 中性 证券研究报告 / 首次覆盖报告 蜜雪集团 (2097 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$660.00) 确定性源自对极致性价比模式的深刻理解 性价比定位确保广阔受众，合理利润分配成就万店加盟：蜜雪从最初的刨冰果断转向更具 规模且更易标准化的现制茶饮赛道，以及定位极致性价比紧抓下沉市场庞大需求无不体现 其独到的市场洞察力；平衡标准化与受众群体构造单店模型也为后续连锁扩张奠定了坚实 根基。作为首家突破万店的茶饮品牌，蜜雪的渠道扩张则演绎了加盟模式"持续寻求利润 分配最优解"的生意本质——初期尽量降低加盟商的准入成本与充分让利迅速展店，而后 随门店数量不断提升积极变革管理模式与渠道策略，确保门店运营高度标准化与单店盈利 相对稳定，持续调整利润分配方案。在管理没有跟上扩张速度的时候蜜雪暂停扩张、变革 管理，在选择多、粘性低的餐饮赛道依然可以迅速重拾品牌势能、重启扩张，展现了不俗 的纠错能力。公司四万余家加盟店的开拓与行业领先的盈利能力并非偶然，而是水到渠成 的必然结果。 高效撬动外部营销资源，供应链上延下伸降本增效：蜜雪先与深耕餐饮营销的华与华合作 打造视听记忆 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$195.16, representing a potential upside of 32% from the current price of HK$147.70 [2][10][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first GAAP profit in Q1 2025, with revenue growth and pipeline realization creating a positive cycle. The revenue for 2024 was reported at US$3.81 billion, a 55% year-on-year increase, and the company reported a net loss of US$645 million, narrowing by 27% [7][11]. - The main product, Zebutini, saw Q1 2025 sales reach US$792 million, a significant increase of 62.1% year-on-year, indicating a strong commercialization foundation [8]. - The R&D pipeline is progressing well, with several products in critical clinical stages, including the BCL-2 inhibitor Sonrotoclax and BTK CDAC (BGB-16673), which are expected to yield important clinical results soon [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from US$3.81 billion in 2024 to US$5.39 billion in 2025, with a net profit expected to turn positive at US$93 million in 2025 [12][13]. - The report indicates a decrease in EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026, revised to US$0.06 and US$0.37 respectively, reflecting a 39% and 29% reduction from previous estimates [3][13]. - The financial data shows a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with Q1 2025 cash inflow reaching US$44.08 million, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [7][12]. Product Performance - The core product, Baiyueze, is expected to generate sales of US$3.31 billion in 2025, a 43.3% increase from previous estimates, while other products are projected to contribute US$0.81 billion [14][16]. - The report highlights that the company’s revenue structure is increasingly concentrated on core products, supported by ongoing expansion in overseas markets [14]. Valuation Analysis - The DCF model used for valuation indicates a target price of HK$195.16, based on a WACC of 8.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 4.5% [17][19]. - The company’s projected enterprise value/revenue for 2025 is 5.5 times, which is below the industry average of 8.1 times, suggesting that the market has not fully recognized the company’s strong commercialization capabilities [18].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics, setting a target price of HK$8.60, representing a potential upside of 33% from the current price of HK$6.46 [1][6][10]. Core Insights - Horizon Robotics is positioned as a key beneficiary in the high-end assisted driving industry, with a strong market share exceeding 40% in China's OEM advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) market as of 2024 [7][29]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the global growth potential of smart driving, with projections indicating that global and Chinese smart vehicle sales will reach approximately 80 million and 30 million units by 2030, respectively [7][29]. - The unique BPU (Brain Processing Unit) architecture of Horizon Robotics provides a competitive edge by optimizing hardware and software collaboration, achieving higher computational efficiency at lower power consumption [30][42]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Horizon Robotics are projected at RMB 3.43 billion, RMB 5.41 billion, and RMB 7.46 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 43.7%, 57.9%, and 37.9% [9][31]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2027, with a projected net profit of RMB 901 million, following losses in the preceding years [9][31]. Market Comparison - The report compares Horizon Robotics with peers such as NVIDIA, ARM, Mobileye, and Black Sesame Intelligence, applying a 20x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio to derive the target price [32][71]. - The competitive landscape indicates that Horizon Robotics has established itself as a leader in the mid-to-low-end smart driving hardware market, with plans to penetrate the high-end market further with the launch of the Journey 6 series chips [71][72]. Product Solutions - Horizon Robotics offers three main smart driving solutions: Horizon Mono, Horizon Pilot, and Horizon SuperDrive, catering to different levels of driving assistance [44][60]. - The Journey 6 series chips, set to launch in 2025, will cover a wide range of smart driving needs, enhancing the company's product matrix [62][67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 68.05, indicating a potential upside of 34% from the current price of RMB 50.61 [1][8][15]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a recovery in new orders within the clinical CRO industry, with a significant increase in new contract amounts in Q1 2025, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth [6][7]. - Despite facing challenges in 2024 due to non-recurring factors, the core business remains stable, with a net cash flow from operating activities showing a 37.26% year-on-year increase [6][7]. - The company is expanding its international presence and investing in digitalization and AI, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and customer retention [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 6,603 million in 2024, a decline of 10.58% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 405 million, down 79.99% due to fair value losses on financial assets [6][9]. - For 2025, the revenue is projected to be RMB 7,310 million, with an estimated EPS of RMB 1.56, reflecting a significant downward adjustment from previous estimates [2][11][12]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a recovery trajectory, with expected revenues growing at rates of 9.64%, 13.68%, and 16.87% from 2025 to 2027 [7][12]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The target price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 44x for 2025, which is above the industry average of 24x, suggesting a premium valuation due to the company's leading position in the clinical CRO sector [8][15]. - The report highlights the company's competitive edge and potential for valuation recovery as the industry improves [15][17].

2025 年 6 月 17 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 石药 (1093 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$10.59) | 买入 | | --- | | 目标价: HK$10.59 | 当前股价: HK$8.84 | | --- | --- | | 股价上行/下行空间 | +20% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) | 9.48/4.27 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 13,462 | | 当前发行数量(百万股) | 11,954 | | 三个月平均日交易額 | 164 | | (US$mn) | | | 流通盘占比 (%) | 41 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | 鼎大集团有限公司 | 10 | | 联诚控股有限公司 | 8 | | 共成国际 | 6 | | 按 2025 年 6 月 13 日收市数据 | | | 资料来源: FactSet | | 主要调整 | | 现值 | 原值 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 评级 | 买入 | 买入 | N/A | | 目标价 (HK$) | 10.59 | 8.88 | 19% | | 2 ...